No quarter given... How this uniquely hard to call last eight promises to be a real World Cup treat
THIS is the ninth Rugby World Cup to be held and it is the most competitive in history.
Just look at the quarter-final line-up this weekend.
Every single one of those four matches could go either way, something we have never been able to say in past tournaments.
For the first time, none of the quarter-finals are a nailed-on cert with the possibility each could go down to the wire.
It promises to be a worldwide TV feast for rugby lovers.
Ireland have beaten back-to-back holders New Zealand twice in their last three meetings and will fancy their prospects again.
South Africa will fear the threat of hosts Japan. England versus Australia is close to an even game, and while Wales start as favourites against France, no-one can possibly write off Les Bleus.
It’s different to four years ago when New Zealand predictably trounced a woeful France side. Australia were expected to beat Scotland and South Africa took care of injury-ravaged Wales.
Although a couple of those matches were tight, the results went the way expected. This time, while there are favourites for each match, there are genuine 50-50 calls in some cases.
Put together as a quartet of games, they will be the most competitive quarter-finals the World Cup has known.
Western Mail Rugby Correspondent ANDY HOWELL analyses a compelling line-up of matches and tries to predict the outcomes...
QUARTER-FINAL 1: ENGLAND v AUSTRALIA (SATURDAY, 8.15am, OITA)
The business end of the World Cup has arrived and form, to some degree, can go out of the window.
Nevertheless, England are 1/3 favourites with thepools.com with Australia priced at 13/5.
Since the Wallabies put then hosts England away in style 33-15 four years ago at the group stage the boot has been on the other foot.
England coach Eddie Jones has had a smug look on his face whenever his home country is name-checked because he’s been the architect of six consecutive victories over the Wallabies.
The Wallabies have upped the physicality stakes with destructive runners behind in Samu Kerevi and Marika Koroibete to counter the likes of Manu Tuilagi in the England ranks. However, despite defeat to Wales, the Wallabies have improved greatly in recent times. They are also a tournament team, tending to have this knack of doing well.
While the back-row battle looks fascinating with Tom Curry and Sam Underhill the chosen men to go up against Michael Hooper and David Pocock?
The Australian back-row stars will be determined to snip the string-pulling skills of England skipper Owen Farrell.
Andy Howell’s verdict: Australia have x-rated attackers like Koroibete, Kerevi and Matt Toomau, players whose brilliance can swing a match against anyone. Indeed, they put the All Blacks away in the Rugby Championship.
But, even though their pack has improved, can it cope with the power, physicality and intensity of the forward juggernaut assembled by Jones?
England’s Pool C decider with France having been cancelled because of Typhoon Hagibis may mean they’re shade under-cooked, but I expect them to give the Wallabies a grilling up-front to book a semi-place.
Just.
QUARTER-FINAL 2: NEW ZEALAND V IRELAND (SATURDAY, 11.15am, TOKYO)
The All Blacks are bidding to become the first country to make it a hat-trick of World Cups on the bounce.
It’s a massive task, but if there’s a team that can complete the unprecedented feat it’s New Zealand.
The silver fern means so much to them and wearing arguably the most iconic jersey in sport inspires players to collectively hit heights others cannot match.
But they are vulnerable and have been in transition since the drawn Test series with the Lions two years ago.
Their performances this year have been mixed, with a heavy defeat to Australia in Perth, a draw with South Africa in Wellington and a squeak in Argentina.
Ireland have won three Six Nations titles under their Kiwi coach Joe Schmidt and were last month at No.1 in the official World Rugby rankings.
They have also won two of the last three meetings with New Zealand and certainly don’t have an inferiority complex.
But the Ireland teams of autumn 2016 and ‘18 have not wintered well in 2019 and look a pale shadow from those All Black-beating days.
Any plans to up the ante physically could well prove to be Ireland’s downfall as demonstrated when the Springboks adopted the tactic against Steve Hansen’s men in their Pool B opener.
Much hinges on the half-back axis of Johnny Sexton and Conor Murray flicking the switch and executing a precise game-plan mixing aerial bombardment and building up pressure through phase-play.
Andy Howell’s verdict: Ireland will have to find the form they produced to wallop Scotland 27-3 in their World Cup opener. Consistency has been an issue this year, just look at the way they crumbled against England and Wales in the Six Nations, before then losing to Japan in Pool A.
But their forwards were impressive in beating Samoa and significantly they should gain confidence from accounting for the All Blacks twice in their last three meetings. New Zealand can struggle to overcome physical opponents and Ireland will try to turn on the power up front again. But the attacking arsenal the Kiwis possess, spearheaded by the devastating Beauden Barrett, should be enough to ensure an Ireland team that appears to be on the slide don’t reach the last four for the first time in history.
QUARTER-FINAL 3: WALES V FRANCE (SUNDAY, 8.15am, OITA)
This is the big one but, somewhat strangely, it’s only the second time the countries have duelled at the World Cup.
The less said about their sole meeting to date, the 2011 semi-final in Auckland, the better. We know the story.
While Wales have been a consistent and growing force in world rugby, particularly in recent years with regular victories over South Africa and Australia, France remain in the doldrums.
That’s nothing new because, in New Zealand seven years ago, they were comprehensively beaten by the All Blacks at the group stage and also went down to Tonga in a huge upset.But they sneaked into the quarter-finals and stumbled past England before hanging on to beat Wales.
That booked them a final meeting with New Zealand and, against the odds, they were pipped by a point after being on the end of a controversial refereeing decision.
They have lost seven of their last eight against Wales and the talk emanating from their camp in Japan is of a rift between players and coaches.
But whatever state you think the French are in, under-estimate them at your peril. Rifts in the French camp
usually sees the coaching shackles abandoned by Les Bleus.
And in scrum-half Antoine Dupont, wings Damian Penaud (if fit) and Alivereti Raka plus centre Virimi Vakatawa, France contain significant weapons to leave even the most watertight of defences grasping thin air.
Andy Howell’s verdict: It’s a much used cliche but you never know what to expect from France because they can switch off as quickly as they can switch on.
We’ve seen it at this World Cup for they were hugely impressive for 35 minutes in their Pool C opener with Argentina, only to fall away drastically and require an 11th-hour drop-goal to win 23-21.
They can be highly dangerous. But that said, Wales have been one of the most impressive teams at the tournament and a clinical display can herald a semi-final appearance.
SOUTH AFRICA (SUNDAY, 11.15am, TOKYO)
This is the game that will capture the neutrals most, with Japan being everybody else’s second favourite team. The hosts have lit up the tournament and deservedly disposed of Ireland and Scotland to top Pool A in sensational style.
Their rise may have startled some, but they beat Fiji to lift the Pacific Nations Cup and have visionary coaches in Jamie Joseph and Tony Brown.
It was similar innovation, when Eddie Jones was in charge, that saw Japan produce the biggest shock in World Cup history when they beat South Africa 34-32 in spellbinding fashion in Brighton four years ago.
It will be a clash of styles with South Africa’s Rugby Championship winners looking to physically overpower Japan at forward and keep them on the back foot.
Japan will want to play fast and loose, and move Springboks’ giant brutes like Eben Etzebeth and Lood de Jager around in the hope of tiring them out.
Andy Howell’s verdict: Japan cannot be written off because the whole country is behind them and they are playing like a team inspired, with scrum-half Yutaka Nagare making them tick and Michael Leitch a brilliant on-field leader.
But it’s not just that, for they’re a quality rugby side who possess skills which are a match for anybody, and utilise time and space so well.
Often, it’s the accuracy and sharpness of their passing which allows them to find holes and pierce opposition defences.
This will be their toughest test because the Springboks are potential tournament winners and also have pace to burn.
Most will be willing Japan to win, but the head says South Africa will do a number on them and edge a thriller.