Wales poll boost for Tories

THE Conservatives are on course to win eight seats from Labour in Wales at Thursday’s General Election, according to the final all-Wales poll before polling day.

Labour is predicted to lose Wrexham, Vale of Clwyd, Gower, Cardiff North, Delyn, Bridgend, Clwyd South and Alyn & Deeside.

The YouGov poll for ITV Wales and Cardiff University, carried out at the weekend, also suggests that the Conservatives will win back Brecon & Radnorshire, which it lost to the Liberal Democrats in a by-election in August. Plaid Cymru is predicted to lose Ceredigion back to the Liberal Democrats.

Across Wales, Labour’s support stands at 40% (up 2 points from the last poll in late November), the Conservatives at 37% (up 5), Plaid Cymru 10% (down 1), the Liberal Democrats 6% (down 3), the Brexit Party 5% (down 3), Greens 1% (no change) and Others 1% (no change).

All the seat projections are based on an assumption that there would be a uniform swing across Wales since the last election in 2017.

Professor Roger Awan-Scully, head of politics at Cardiff University, said: “These figures would enable the Labour Party to continue their long run – unbroken since 1922 – of winning the most votes in Wales at every one of the last 26 general elections.

“But rarely, if ever, has the Tory challenge to Labour dominance been that strong. If our poll was reproduced on election day itself, this would be an historic result for the Conservatives in Wales. This would be their highest Welsh vote share since 1900 – thus, their highest ever in the era of universal suffrage.

“The squeeze on the smaller parties seen in our previous two Welsh polls continues, with the ‘big two’ now winning nearly 80% of all electoral support. The contrast with May, when between them the Conservative and Labour parties won little more than 20% of the vote in the European Parliament election, is staggering.”

Considering the predicted seat changes, Prof Awan-Scully said: “Our poll suggests that as well as winning the most votes, Labour would still come out ahead in Wales on seats.

“But 20 seats would equal Labour’s worst performance in Wales since the

War, while it would be the best for the Conservatives in that era – even outdoing their showing in Margaret Thatcher’s 1983 landslide victory. The Welsh Conservatives would have made a very substantial contribution to delivering a parliamentary majority for Boris Johnson.”

Prof Awan-Scully added: “A major reason why Labour’s fightback in Wales appears to have stalled is that, unlike in 2017, Jeremy Corbyn has not been able to continue improving his personal ratings with the public.

“With just days to go now, things remain very much in the balance. It is well within the ‘margin of error’ in polls for Labour to retain many of the seats that our poll currently projects them to lose.

“But sampling errors work both ways – the picture could be even bleaker for Labour than is suggested here.”

The poll also asked those participating how they would vote if there were a Senedd election.

In the constituency section, Labour would get the votes of 33% of the electorate, with the Conservatives on 31%, Plaid Cymru 18%, Brexit Party 7%, Liberal Democrats 7% the Greens 3% and Others 1%.

In the regional section of a Senedd election, Labour would get 32%, the Conservatives 28%, Plaid Cymru 19%, Brexit Party 7%, Liberal Democrats 6%, Greens 4%, Abolish the Assembly 2% and Others 1%.

■ The poll, for ITV Wales and Cardiff University, had a sample of 1,020 Welsh adults and was carried out by YouGov between December 6-9.