Tories storm into 12-point lead over Labour - poll
THE Conservative Party has stormed into a 12-point lead over Labour in Wales in terms of Westminster voting intention, according to a new YouGov poll for ITV Wales and Cardiff University.
The poll puts the Conservatives on 46% (up 5 points from the last equivalent poll in January), Labour on 34% (-2), Plaid Cymru on 11% (-2) and the Liberal Democrats on 4% (-1), Brexit Party 3% (no change) and Greens 2% (no change).
Based on a uniform national swing, such results would see the Conservatives winning 25 of Wales’ 40 seats (+11), Labour 12 (-10) and Plaid Cymru 3 (-1).
The seats projected to be Conservative gains are: Alyn and Deeside, Cardiff North, Carmarthen East and Dinefwr, Gower, Llanelli, Islwyn, Neath, Newport East, Newport West, Pontypridd and Torfaen.
All but Carmarthen East and Dinefwr – currently held by Jonathan Edwards for Plaid Cymru – would be gained by the Conservatives directly from Labour.
Voting intentions for a Senedd election, with the next one scheduled for May 2021, show in the constituency section the Conservatives on 38% (+2), Labour on 32% (no change), Plaid Cymru on 19% (-1), the Liberal Democrats on 4% (-1), the Brexit Party 4% (no change), the Greens on 3% (no change) and Others on 1% (no change).
Again on a uniform national swing, the Tories are projected to capture nine constituency seats from Labour: Cardiff North, Cardiff West, Clwyd South, Delyn, Gower, Newport West, the Vale of Clwyd, the Vale of Glamorgan and Wrexham.
Labour would still, on the figures, win more constituency seats than the Conservatives: 18 to the Tories’ 15, with Plaid Cymru holding six and Kirsty Williams holding on for the Lib Dems in Brecon and Radnor.
But among the projected Labour losses would be First Minister Mark Drakeford in Cardiff West.
For the regional list vote, the poll showed the Conservatives on 37% (+4), Labour on 29% (-2), Plaid Cymru on 18% (-1), Liberal Democrats: 4% (-1), Brexit Party: 4% (no change),
Greens 3% (no change), Abolish the Assembly: 3% (no change) and Others: 2% (no change).
In terms of regional seat allocations, north Wales would see three Labour and one Plaid; Mid and West Wales, three Conservatives and 1 Labour; South Wales West, three Conservative and 1 Plaid; South Wales Central, two Conservatives, one Plaid, one Labour; and South Wales East, three Conservatives and one Plaid.
Overall, therefore, the Conservatives would have 26 seats, Labour 23, Plaid Cymru 10 and the Liberal Democrats 1. The poll had a sample of 1,008 Welsh adults aged 18+ and was carried out by YouGov between April 3 and April 7.