Experts are monitoring spread of ‘indian’ strain
SCIENTISTS and public health experts are closely monitoring the spread of a variant of coronavirus which is thought to have originated in India.
Last week it was announced that there have been 77 cases of the mutant strain B.1.617 so far across the UK with Public Health Wales (PHW) later confirming that Wales had a further eight cases.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson cancelled a trip to New Delhi, which had been set to go ahead next week, due to increasing concerns about the Covid19 situation in India.
The country has also been added to the coronavirus foreign travel “red list” in response to mounting concern about the huge volumes of cases there.
But how worried should we be by this new variant and what might it mean for the easing of lockdown in Wales and our neighbours across the border?
What is the new variant?
The strain, known as B.1.617, has been classified as a “variant under investigation” by Public Health England (PHE) while scientists gather more data.
It is not yet formally considered as serious as the Brazilian or South African strains which are classed as “variants of concern”.
However this strain has a double mutation that could make it better at evading the body’s immune response - including those produced by the vaccine. However this has not been verified yet.
In fact, George Eustice, the UK Government environment secretary, has said early data suggests B.1.617 does not spread any quicker.
“I’m told there is no evidence at the moment this particular variant is able to get around the vaccine or... that it is necessarily more contagious than the others - but we are looking at it, it will be studied,” he told Sky News.
How much has it spread in the UK?
Last Friday PHE said 73 cases of the variant had been found in England and four in Scotland. Days later Public Health Wales (PHW) said eight had been found in Wales. This figure is set to be updated on the UK Government’s website this week and can be found here.
A spokeswoman for PHW said: “We are aware of eight cases of lineage B.1.617, designated as variant under investigation - VUI-21APR-01 (Indian variant) of Covid-19 in Wales. All cases are either travellers returning from India or their close household contacts.”
It also appears community transmission is taking place, meaning not all those infected caught the new variant of the virus abroad, but this doesn’t appear to be the case so far in Wales.
Dr Susan Hopkins, chief medical adviser for NHS Test and Trace, told the Andrew Marr Show on Sunday:
“We have seen a couple of cases (of the Indian variant) that haven’t arisen from travel but we’re still trying to undergo the investigations to look in great detail at where they might have acquired it from.
“To escalate it up the ranking we need to know that it is increased transmissibility, increased severity, or vaccine-evading and we just don’t have that yet.”
Professor Paul Hunter, professor of infectious diseases at the University of East Anglia and a World Health Organisation (WHO) adviser, has warned the strain may be “doubling every 10 days at the moment.” He told the i newspaper: “It did chill me a little bit seeing how rapidly this variant might be growing.”
However PHW said it is still unknown how transmissible the Indian variant is between people and studies are now taking place globally to assess whether vaccines are effective against it.
What is the situation in India?
India is currently in the grip of a devastating second wave with close to 16m confirmed cases to date - second only to the United States.
On Thursday the country recorded 314,835 new cases in just 24 hours which was the highest one-day tally of new Covid-19 cases anywhere in the world.
There are fears the country’s healthcare system could be overwhelmed amid widespread oxygen shortages. According to the city’s deputy chief minister Manish Sisodia a number of hospitals in the capital New Delhi were running out entirely on Thursday.
According to the National Institute of Virology the mutant strain is driving the spike in infection rates. However their vaccination rollout has been largely limited to healthcare workers and frontline staff and hasn’t reached anyone under the age of 45.
Is this likely to affect the easing of lockdown here?
Infection rates in Wales have been on a continuous downward curve for the past few weeks. According to Thursday’s update there were 14.6 positive cases per 100,000 people recorded for the seven days up to April 17. This is way down on the January peak.
The presence of the Brazil and South Africa variants, which have triggered localised surge testing in parts of the UK when they’ve been discovered, do not seem to have upped the infection rate significantly. The main variant in Wales remains the Kent strain B.1.1.7.
Similarly the number of people in hospital with Covid-19 in Wales is almost as low as we saw in March 2020 - the very start of the pandemic.
Meanwhile 1,727,455 people in Wales have received the first dose of a Covid-19 vaccine and 635,655 people have had both doses. That’s the highest amount per head in the UK.
As a result the Welsh Government is pressing ahead with more lockdown easing, including the re-opening of outdoor hospitality on Monday, April 26, and allowing six people to meet outdoors with no limits on the number of households involved.
Dr Eleri Davies, incident director for the novel coronavirus outbreak response at Public Health Wales, said: “We would like to remind the public that coronavirus is still circulating in our communities and a large number of people have not been fully vaccinated.
“It is therefore vital that people observe social distancing, wear face coverings when in indoor spaces, and wash hands regularly. These actions will help to prevent transmission of the virus.”
From 4am on Friday, April 23, most people who have travelled from India in the past 10 days will be refused entry into the UK.
British or Irish passport holders, or people with UK residence rights, will be allowed in but must quarantine in a government-approved hotel for 10 days.
The new travel rule applies to England and Scotland. There are currently no direct international flights into Wales or Northern Ireland.