‘Too early’ to say if there’ll be restrictions brought in for Christmas
IT IS too early to say if new restrictions will be brought in for Christmas, the Health Minister has said.
Eluned Morgan, pictured below, has warned that now the first case of the Omicron variant has been detected in Wales it is “inevitable” there will be more. They could total thousands, she has warned.
She said it was important to “level with” people and admit “we don’t know how effective the vaccines will be in terms of protecting us, we don’t know how serious the disease will be if you do contract it”.
Asked directly if people should prepare for restrictions to cover contact over Christmas, she said it was too early to tell. She also said that the Welsh Government “reserves the right” to introduce measures at short notice. Most recently, despite high rates, any measures introduced at a review have been the only changes for the following three weeks, which would ordinarily mean the December 10 review would remain the same for three weeks – until New Year’s Eve.
The Health Minister, however, said measures could be introduced quicker if they were needed.
It was reported yesterday that Boris Johnson will make a decision on December 18 as to whether restrictions will be needed for Christmas Day.
Baroness Morgan said the Welsh Government did not have a set timescale.
She said that the first data which will shape some of their decisionmaking is two weeks away, on or around December 19.
What measures are being discussed now Omicron is in Wales?
“Having the first case of Omicron was a position that we expected to be in. What’s clear is that we’re going to see increasing numbers in the next few weeks and we need to learn as much as possible about this new variant between now and then and if we put any additional protective measures in place.
“What we do know is the best bet in terms of protecting ourselves is to take vaccinations and to isolate if you are symptomatic, and also just making sure that we we have that collective approach, trying to restrict the expansion of the the disease in Wales, which will inevitably come.”
The First Minister has spoken about Covid passes being extended for hospitality. That suggests it’s fairly high on the list of things that you’re looking at.
“I think it’s too early to say. I think we’re in a position where clearly some of the evidence from around the world does give us cause for concern. The fact that, you know, there was a party in Norway that I’m particularly concerned about where lots of people developed Covid despite the fact that they had been double vaccinated and had taken lateral flow tests prior to the party.
“That clearly gives us cause for concern. I just think there’s a lot more we need to learn in the coming week.
“What we still don’t know, and I think it’s really important that we level with Welsh people about what we don’t know, and that is we don’t know how effective the vaccines will be in terms of protecting us, we don’t
know how serious the disease will be if you do contract it.”
The Welsh Government’s Covid Urgent planning scenario says that would be brought in “to deal with any sudden changes to the situation”. Isn’t that where we are? Should we prepare for Covid Urgent?
“Well, first of all, let’s not forget that we still have very high levels of Delta in our communities. So there’s enough to worry about with Delta, and we mustn’t lose sight of that, that actually mixing even now means that the there is a chance that you can catch the Delta variant.
“What we do know about this new variant is that it is likely that it’s much more highly transmissible even than the Delta variant, and clearly that will be something that we will need to consider.
“What we’re told time and time again is that we’ll be better to intervene earlier rather than later, but clearly, we’ve got to be very sensitive around any additional protection measures we may put in place at a time which is really important for hospitality and for families to get together. And so it is a very delicate balance. We’re not in the same situation as we were last year because such a high proportion of our population have been double vaccinated already.”
Today, compared to previous times we’ve spoken, you seem more inclined towards Covid Urgent. Is this the closest we’ve been to going back to that?
“This is going to be a Cabinet decision.
“I do think the Omicron variant is serious and the potential spread of the virus and the number of people potentially it could affect would not only impact the NHS but it would impact the community at large. So what we could see is people having to self-isolate in their thousands and
that would obviously have an impact on our society.”
Boris Johnson has reportedly said he’ll decide on December 18 if Christmas can go ahead. Is that the sort of timescale you recognise?
“We haven’t got a timescale, in that sense that we’re working through. We know we’ve got to make some some decisions in terms of the 21-day review this coming Friday and I think it’s very difficult when we have such a fluid situation for us to stick to a very clear timetable.”
So should people be prepared that they’re not safe for those three weeks effectively – there could be changes within that review period?
“We will reserve the right to make changes very quickly if that needs to happen. Obviously, if we do go down that route, we will give as much notice of as possible to people, particularly as we understand that people will be travelling this time of year, but we’re not in that position at the moment. We will be considering this over the next few days.”
So now Omicron is here should people be prepared that there may be Christmas restrictions?
“I think it’s too early to say at the moment. What I would say is that if people are even now considering mixing with older or vulnerable people, they should be considering that carefully and perhaps taking a lateral flow test. In particular, if they’re going out to areas and places where lots of people will gather indoors.”
Is that also in terms of the 10 days and as we saw last year, people working backwards from when you’re planning to see people?
“It makes sense to limit your contacts at the moment. Irrespective of the new variant, we have still very high levels within our communities. I think people should think very seriously before they mix with lots of people indoors without taking precautions.”
The very early reports from South Africa say it spreads very quickly. There’s also some indication of it spreading between younger people and the unvaccinated. When are you expecting to see data that will answer some of these questions?
“We know that a huge amount of research is being done in particular at Porton Down at the moment to evaluate the effectiveness of our vaccines on the new variant.
“They’re not expecting that information for about two weeks, so we’ve still got a long time to wait before we can be sure about what measure of protection our vaccines give us. We think that there will definitely be a protection from having a vaccine, which is why we are pushing very hard on asking people to come forward for their boosters when they are called.”
You said on the radio [on Sunday] that the NHS is close to being maxed out. And before now you’ve said that is the key test for restrictions coming in. On Saturday, the University Hospital of Wales in Cardiff said you should only attend if there’s a danger to life or limb. That sounds like we’re exceptionally close. How much more can the NHS take before those restrictions have to be brought in to protect the NHS?
“We’ve got to be really careful to distinguish between what is a normal winter pressure and the pressure that is caused by Covid. So there are legal reasons for how and why we can introduce any protective measures. We always have difficult winters even pre-Covid but we were never in a position where we’ve closed society down because it would have been disproportionate, so we’ve got to make sure that what we’re looking at here is the impact of Covid on the NHS”.
So do you know that in relation to the UHW?
“What we know is that actually the rates of Covid in terms of hospitalisation are coming down. So at the moment, those rates are coming down and the pressures on hospitals are huge but it’s not just because of Covid. We’ve got to understand that there are broader issues here that we need to address as well.”
It’s now been at least a month since the first rugby international in Cardiff. Has your data or the scientists managed to tell you if there were any spikes after the large events and the transport chaos we saw?
“I’m not aware that we have that evidence.”
If there was we would know about it by now?
“I should think we would. I guess the point with those internationals is that the stadium is outdoors, people were using Covid passes. We were obviously very concerned to see numbers of people gathering congregating on trains such close quarters. But I can’t say that we’ve we’ve made a direct relationship between those yet.”