Welsh ports set to suffer consequences of Brexit
PROFESSOR STUART COLE takes a look at Brexit’s potential impact on life at Wales’s ports
AS January 1, 2021, approaches, adverse economic consequences of Brexit will be felt in Wales’ ports.
On the international scene the UK Government breaking its negotiated treaty with the European Union (EU) does not augur well for any future trade deals with other countries.
On Wales’ transport links with the Republic of Ireland, the EU is unlikely to make it easy for exporters in Wales and the other UK nations.
The importance of traffic through the ports of Holyhead, Fishguard and Pembroke Dock extends to the logistics (haulage) companies and all the associated employment such as freight forwarding,
Wales’ growing cruise ship market will undoubtedly be handicapped if checks are made on routes incorporating, for example, France or Ireland.
Ireland, Wales’ closest EU neighbour, could be deeply affected by Brexit and is preparing for a ‘no deal’.
Currently most of Ireland’s goods imports and exports move through Wales along highquality infrastructure – the M4 with traffic through Cork and Rosslare and the A55 Expressway through Dun Laoghaire.
Removing that traffic will create unemployment at service areas but ironically will assist the Welsh Government’s air quality objectives.
Of course, travel and freight movements between England, Wales and Ireland are likely to continue. But with serious delays.
England’s government is making preparations in Kent to contain the delays in traffic flows which border checks will bring.
Any Welsh logistics company operating through Dover or the Tunnel will require a Kent Access Permit showing that all paperwork has been completed or they will be turned back.
The creation of a large lorry park on Ynys Mon adjacent to the A55 to Holyhead and others for 7,000 Dover-bound lorries off the M2 motorway shows how bad the delays might be.
The current arrangements allow the free movement of goods with the EU.
The serious consequence for Welsh hauliers could be up to two-day delays affecting any just in time (JIT) operations such as components to factories, clothes to retail stores and food to customers.
The last is probably the most serious as fresh Welsh food produce may deteriorate and become unsaleable, made worse by French authorities making clear they could check all lorries passing into the EU.
However, these delays will have proportionately a similar impact on Celtic Sea ports serving Wales-ireland trade.
The EU is likely to step up promotion of its Motorways of the Seas concept on which my USW team and I worked in its early stages.
Its objective is to move traffic away from major land routes such as northern France, south east England and Region Central in France.
Road freight traffic from Spain would then go directly by sea from Santander or Bilbao to Wales, Ireland, the Netherlands, Germany (via Rotterdam) or Scandinavia.
The impact on Wales’ ports would see ferries avoiding the present Rosslare-fishguardDover route and substituting direct sea operations from Ireland to France (Rosslare to Cherbourg, Cork to Roscoff). Although this route takes an extra six hours using direct ferry operations between Ireland and France, such services are already operating.
Sailings to Cherbourg are being analysed by some ferry companies.
It may not be a perfect solution, but once logistics routes have been set up directly between Ireland and France those customers are unlikely to change back to the via-dover sea route and the Channel Tunnel itself.
At present, journeys by sea and road between Dublin and Calais via Wales take ten hours; a direct sea voyage would be 18 hours.
This has operational benefits by providing drivers with rest periods and avoiding unpredictable delays at Dover or Calais.
The reason for no previous route changes became clear in our Motorways of the Seas project.
Freight forwarders and logistics companies prefer familiar operations, along safe/secure routes and know exactly where their Gps-tracked vehicles are located.
The unknown operational and financial consequences provide no desire to try alternative routes.
For many years the ferry companies also successfully operated the present routes and saw no reason to change if their customers remained happy.
The Channel Tunnel did reduce ferry traffic across Le Manche and those companies now see potential new marketable routes.
The impact will be noticeable in Welsh ports, and their hinterlands, through loss of employment, income and closure of businesses.
Many small freight forwarding companies will be affected in Fishguard and Holyhead and trade between Wales and Ireland is likely to reduce.
However, the UK Government and the Brexiteers will not notice Pembrokeshire and Gwynedd’s plight as they move forward ‘gung-ho’ towards January 1, 2021.