Rates higher than when pubs reopened outdoors last year
RATES of Covid are significantly higher now than when the Welsh Government reopened outdoor hospitality last summer, writes Will Hayward.
In England hospitality has reopened outdoors and people are able to have their first pint at a licensed premises in 2021. In Wales pubs won’t reopen until April 26.
For business owners this is an understandable frustration. Especially as many feel they are not well enough informed to properly plan for an April 26 reopening. However the current amount of Covid in the community is significantly higher than July last year when pubs reopened.
Pubs and restaurants reopened outdoors in Wales last year on July 13. The Covid situation in Wales then was: ■ Infection rate per 100,000 was 4.4. ■ The test positivity percentage was 0.8%
The Covid situation in Wales right now is: ■ Infection rate per 100,000 is 17.5 ■ Test positivity rate is currently 2%
So what we have is the two main indicators for Covid-19 in the community – positivity and cases per 100,000 – markedly higher than it was when Wales last reopened pubs outdoors. This is part of the Welsh Government’s rationale being hesitant with the reopening.
However, there are other reasons to think that this time around we do not need to wait as long to reopen our beer gardens.
The first thing to mention is there are fewer people in hospital with Covid now than there were on July 13 last year.
The number of people in hospital with confirmed or suspected Covid is currently 369 whereas when pubs reopened outdoor last year there were 512.
There is also good news on the amount of people actually being admitted. In the seven days leading up to July 13 there were an average of 62 people with suspected or confirmed Covid being admitted every day. In the seven days leading up to April 12 this was just 16.
And this brings us on to the vaccine. The First Minister has already indicated that the vaccine is cutting the link between cases and deaths. Alongside the low numbers of cases in hospitals this adds weight to the calls to reopen earlier than last year. Added to this there is immunity that some people have in Wales from already contracting the virus.
It is also worth pointing out that in July last year the reopening of outdoor hospitality didn’t lead to a significant increase in cases as the virus only really got going again in late August when lots of travellers returned from overseas trips.
Asking if the Welsh Government is right to wait, there is no right or wrong answer. On the one hand cases are far higher than they were last July. If cases do increase there are likely to be more variants even if there is no increase in hospitalisations. Also a significant proportion of the population haven’t even had one vaccine yet.
On the other, the hospitality sector is on its knees and is desperate for some clarity and trade. There was also no rise in cases last time hospitality opened outside even without the vaccine.