The view of Matt Greenough, former special advisor to Carwyn Jones
THE leadership contest does look like a three-horse race. Jeremy Miles, Eluned Morgan and Vaughan Gething have traditionally the three most prominent jobs in cabinet and fairly clear ambitions for the future. If each does make a bid for the leadership, it is likely that they will hoover up enough nominations to make it difficult for anyone else to get on the ballot paper. They already have strong supporters, and both Eluned and Vaughan exceeded expectations in the last leadership contest which everyone predicted as a shoe-in for Mark Drakeford.
There’s a long time to go yet, however. Mark isn’t going anywhere soon. And politics can always derail what seems like a racing certainty.
Who might spring a surprise? There’s no obvious standard bearer for the left amongst the three quoted above.
Mick Antoniw has returned as Counsel General and is most closely associated with the Corbyn project. He might consider a run. Julie James is a formidable politician and a more progressive view of the cabinet jobs might suggest that hers is at least as big a job as the traditional big three of education, health and economy. Rebecca Evans has showed all the understated can-do confidence you want in a successful Finance Minister.
Vaughan, Eluned and Jeremy are worthy favourites for now.
The election of one will have the very happy consequence of breaking new ground – Wales would have its first ever black, female or gay First Minister. But, one final consideration worth pondering. The Senedd has never had a leader representing a North Walian seat. Labour has five North Walian MSS, and is locked in a continual fight to show the relevance of devolution to the north. If the North Wales group agreed to put forward a candidate, it would only need one more nomination to get them on the ballot paper. And once you’re on the ballot, it is game on.