Government outlines its plan to control virus this autumn and winter
WALES’S new Coronavirus Control Plan for the autumn and winter 2021 has been published.
It coincided with the latest review of lockdown restrictions in Wales as First Minister Mark Drakeford confirmed changes were being made to Wales’s Covid rules, meaning all businesses remain open and Wales has the lowest level of restrictions at Alert Level 0.
He also revealed details of the latest modelling from Swansea University on their projections for the virus this winter.
And he said that if demand for PCR tests grew over the winter after record levels of people getting a test, people not in vulnerable groups may be given a lateral flow test first.
The plan does not go into detail of what will trigger the different levels, but it does set out what could change in a worst-case scenario for Wales.
Referred to as ‘Covid Urgent’, it explains what could happen if there were sudden changes, such as a new variant or a drop in vaccine immunity levels that could both “risk overwhelming the NHS”.
If those happened, it would mean a return to the alert level system and restrictions in Wales, but the First Minister says they would only be used “proportionately” and as a “last resort”.
The so-called ‘Covid Stable’ is described as “the most likely scenario for the future” where “we become used to living with coronavirus and we gradually move out of the pandemic to a position where the virus becomes a seasonal illness”.
Under this scenario, Wales will transition to treating Covid as a normal respiratory virus which is managed as “business as usual”.
In the introduction to the plan, the First Minister and Health Minister Eluned Morgan say: “The last 18 months have been difficult and challenging for us all, especially for all those who have lost loved ones and for those who are suffering from long-covid.
“The pandemic is still with us, as we publish this latest update of the Coronavirus Control Plan, we are approaching what we believe to be the peak of the delta wave in Wales.
“Infections are at their highest level in the community since the dark days of December 2020, but the effectiveness of our fantastic vaccine programme means fewer people are developing and suffering severe illnesses and, fortunately, the number of deaths from this terrible virus are lower than in the earlier waves.”
The plan has been published as more than 85% of people aged 16 and over in Wales have received two doses of a Covid vaccine and the autumn booster campaign is under way.
It says they don’t want to go back to the cycle of imposing strict restrictions to control the spread of coronavirus over the autumn and winter.
But the joint statement says: “This is an unpredictable virus and we cannot rule this out completely.
“If we are faced with a scenario that poses a real risk to public health and people’s lives, such as the emergence of a new variant that does not respond to current vaccines, we have the system of alert levels in place which are flexible to allow us to respond in a proportionate way.”
The two different scenarios have been outlined in the plan:
If Covid is stable, Wales will begin the transition phase towards coronavirus becoming one of the many respiratory viruses that are managed as part of “business as usual”.
There would be no need to reimpose significant restrictions as pressure on the NHS would be managed as part of the normal planning for winter.
The plan says: “This does not mean it will go away or stop making people ill. We will still see outbreaks and epidemics, especially in the unvaccinated populations, which could spill over into vaccinated groups.
“These outbreaks may be more likely in the autumn and winter as people move indoors, where the risks of transmission are much greater.”
Under this scenario it says there may continue to be fluctuations in cases over the autumn and winter.
There are some additional measures that may be put in place. These include:
Non-legislative frameworks put in place by organisations and sectors, which can flex with the local situation, such as the framework in place for education;
Extending the mandatory use of the Covid Pass to other settings, learning from other countries where similar measures have helped to control transmission without closing places;
Consider introducing vaccine certification, subject to equality and ethical issues being mitigated.
If conditions improve significantly, they could:
Remove the legal requirement for the use of the Covid Pass for some or all settings;
Remove the legal requirement for face coverings in some or all settings;
A gradual move from working
from home to a hybrid model of working could be advised.
“Urgent” action may have to be taken because a new variant has emerged or if there is rapidly waning vaccine immunit. The report says: “Both factors could give rise to a sudden increase in serious illness, hospital admissions and deaths from Covid-19, putting unsustainable pressure on the NHS.”
If the health service is once again put under too much pressure, the alert levels system will be upgraded again, with the different levels ranging from the current zero to level four lockdown.
The plan gives some examples. If the issue is waning immunity, then some restrictions could be put in place until the third booster vaccine programme is completed.
The Welsh Government does say that it doesn’t think measures under a ‘Covid Urgent’ scenario will be necessary, but it cannot completely rule them out.
A separate winter plan on the pressures facing the NHS will be published on October 21.
The plan also sets out a number of national enabling actions that are already under way:
NHS recovery funding has been provided for planned care – £140m in addition to the £100m already allocated;
Social care funding (£48m) for recovery activity aligned to the Social Care Recovery Framework;
£25m has been allocated to support the Delivery of the Six Goals for Urgent and Emergency Care, published in July 2021, like helping primary care centres manage demand in the community and rolling out 111 nationally;
The Emergency Ambulance Services Committee has developed a delivery plan to help the Welsh Ambulance Service to better manage 999 demand, increase capacity, improve responsiveness and enable rapid improvement in ambulance patient handover.
Widespread community testing will continue through the winter, the plan states.
It adds that the additional risks posed this winter from flu means testing for some high-risk groups will increase, using a test which can detect both flu and Covid-19.
“Testing capacity to support our testing purposes is at an all-time high and the laboratory network has been consistently delivering fast turnaround times,” it says. “However, modelling indicates that if we experience a difficult winter, with high levels of respiratory viruses circulating, there is a risk that testing demand could exceed lab capacity across the UK.
“If this happens we may have to prioritise the use of PCR testing and look at how best we can utilise lateral flow tests.
“In time, we hope our response to Covid-19 can be ‘normalised’ so that, in line with other winter viruses, testing will be undertaken for more limited purposes, such as for clinical diagnosis and surveillance.”