Economy fears over 20mph limit
THE economic impact of introducing default 20mph speed limits in Wales could run into billions of pounds in the coming years, a Senedd Member (MS) has warned.
While the scheme is likely to yield “large” benefits to the public purse, the Welsh Government’s own figures show a net economic “dis-benefit” of £4.54 billion over the next three decades.
North Wales MS Sam Rowlands accused the administration of “failing to paint the full financial picture” when promoting the scheme, which is the UK’S first.
From September 2023, about 35% of the country’s roads – by length – will have 20mph speed restrictions.
Earlier this month, the Welsh Government announced details of research by Edinburgh’s Transport Research Institute (TRI) and Public Health Wales. This concluded the lower speed limit will save the public purse around £100 million in the first year, from fewer deaths and injuries.
Mr Rowlands said these savings, even multiplied over 30 years, will be offset by the potential economic losses of introducing 20mph speeds on restricted roads in residential and built-up areas. He referred to analysis in a regulatory impact assessment (RIA) commissioned by the government that showed the total dis-benefit, before savings, could reach £6.4 billion over the next 30 years.
“It is totally irresponsible for the Welsh Labour government to be considering spending millions to implement a scheme which largely nobody wants,” he said. “Ministers should be spending that money on tackling the big issues facing Wales and helping our local councils keep services running for the public.”
Setting up the scheme is expected to cost £32.3 million, mostly for 30,000 replacement signs, 5,000 posts and new road markings. The main financial benefits, according to the RIA, stem from improved road safety, which is forecast to give police, hospital and ambulance savings of £1.4bn over 30 years.
The more recent TRI study suggests the benefit could in fact be twice this figure. Either way, there is expected to be a “positive contribution to the public purse”.
New 20mph zones are also expected to encourage active travel in Wales. This could deliver a further £500 million in economic benefits from improved health outcomes. For the wider economy, the figures are less positive.
Mr Rowlands, a long-time opponent of the 20mph plan, has now asked the Welsh Government for a full statement on the scheme’s forecasted costs and benefits. He’s been promised a written statement.
The Welsh Government said 20mph limits had received crossparty political support. A spokesperson said: “The new legislation will not apply a blanket speed limit on all roads, it will make the default limit 20mph and local councils will make a decision about whether the speed of the road will change.”