Effects of change are right on our doorstep
SAVING the worst until last, the triple whammy of recent storms swept across the Sefton coastline, driven by the dull roar of rising winds Dudley, Eunice and Franklin.
The latter probably had the most sustained wind speeds as the borough was pummelled by 70mph gust after gust in the gales.
The danger of falling branches and toppling trees was enough for Green Sefton to close five of its most wooded parks (Derby Park in Bootle, Moorside and Victoria Park in Crosby and Hesketh Park and the Botanic Gardens in Southport) in the face of Eunice and Franklin.
Burbo Bank car park at Crosby and the Marine Drive in Southport had to be closed for safety.
Much of Sefton’s coast had a lucky escape as the peak of Storm Eunice didn’t coincide with high tide on this occasion, otherwise the flooding and erosion could have been much worse.
Even so, the dunes and remnants of the “Tobacco Dump” at the National Trust’s Formby Point site took a beating, as did Hightown beach.
The combination of very high winds and high tides saw an appeal for visitors to stay away from the coastline, where tidal debris can be flung through the air by storms as powerful as those we experienced last week.
The tragedy of a passenger in a vehicle in Netherton who lost their life when flying debris crashed through a windscreen further emphasised just how dangerous winter storms can be in a place like Sefton, which often takes the full force of storms when they rage in off the Irish Sea.
There can be no more terrible an illustration of the hazards that storm systems present to us, often as we go about our daily lives.
But with three named storms in a matter of days, are storms becoming more regular as a consequence of our changing climate? There are doubtless more named storms to come.
The UK Climate Projections Report in 2018 suggested that there would be an increase in winter wind speeds in the second half of the 21 st century, but while the report said winter rainfall could increase dramatically, the rise in windspeeds would not be that marked.
What could change is the path of winter storms – events like Storm Franklin’s fierce wind, prefaced by heavy rain, were once the preserve of exposed regions like the Outer Hebrides, but changes in the jet stream and the North Atlantic Oscillation (the pivot between cold arctic air and warm tropical air out to our west) mean such storms could start tracking further south – just as Dudley, Eunice and Franklin did.
So while the Sefton coast has experienced ferocious winter storms in the past (the Star of Hope was wrecked and grounded at Ainsdale in similar conditions in 1883), we may see them more often going forwards.
At the same time the rising temperatures caused by our changing climate and build-up of greenhouse gases mean more water evaporates from the earth’s oceans, transferring energy and water vapour into the atmosphere.
This can result in more rain, snow and intense storms.
These three slate-flinging, window-rattling storms are a reminder that the effects of climate change are no longer something we witness on news bulletins from far-flung parts of the globe.
These extremes are barging their way into our lives, bringing with them the threat of flooding and erosion and all their consequences to our exposed and constantly changing coastline.