The world is oil rich so let’s all enjoy it while we are here
IHAVE always doubted strident claims by over-enthusiastic environmentalists whose aim is to frighten us to death. They accuse us of sowing the seeds of destruction for this and future generations by the way we treat our planet.
The truth is that this old world of ours has been bumbling its way around the universe for millions of years. It has survived everything we have thrown at it so far. We have had sieges, sackings and boiling oil in old time wars. Mega bombs, dam-busting flooding and burning cities in the last World War and terrifying atomic bombs. Yet our world, with us clinging on to it, sails on and seems likely to do so for all eternity.
Making predictions even as far ahead as next week is difficult enough (as some weather forecasters have discovered) yet environmentalists are willing to make them for years ahead. Unfortunately some gullible people, including politicians, are prepared to give them credence.
One example of dodgy forecasting involved an unlikely coalition of geologists, oil firms, bankers, military strategists and environmentalists. After 10 years of research they concluded that oil production had peaked and was due to decline. In 1975 Marion King Hubbert, a geoscientist working for Shell said global supplies could peak in 1995. In 2003 geophysicist Kenneth Deffeyes said he was confident they would peak in 2004.
In 2005 investment banker Mathew Simmons predicted that Saudi Arabia could not increase its oil production. Since then its output has risen from nine million barrels a day to 10 million.
Meanwhile, a recent report by oil executive Leonardo Maugeri, which was published by Harvard University, provides compelling evidence that a new oil boom has begun. If, like me, you are confused I am not surprised.
One thing seems clear: we are not likely to run short of oil any time soon and one piece of good news is that at least some of the soothsayers now appear willing to own up to their faults. In a significant statement, leading environmentalist George Monbiot admits: “The facts have changed, now we must change too.”
Much to his credit he admits that he and his colleagues made either vague or specific predictions and in all cases were wrong. In a rather rueful admission he ends by saying: “The problem we face is not that there is too little oil but that there is too much.”
Environmentalists care for the planet and think they are doing their best but beware their predictions. We all share responsibility for our future but provided we do not misuse or plunder the planet’s resources we are entitled to make our short time on Earth as pleasant as possible.
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