‘IF WE QUIT WORRYING AND GET ON WITH OUR LIVES WE’LL ALL BE A LOT BETTER OFF FOR IT’
CORONAVIRUS is not as deadly as was thought and fear it is stopping the country returning to normal is unfounded, a leading expert says.
Carl Heneghan, professor of evidence-based medicine at Oxford University, has called for the Government to step in and “proactively reassure the population”.
Prof Heneghan says exaggerated fears of Covid have led to “people going about their daily lives misunderstanding and overestimating their risk”.
And he said introducing local lockdowns could do more harm than good by forcing people into their homes and potentially infecting other vulnerable people who live with them.
Prof Heneghan’s work led to a lowering of the official death toll after he revealed Covid-19 deaths were being counted even
‘People have become overly frightened. The fear instilled is a real problem’
if someone had subsequently died of other causes.
He has now released figures revealing the infection fatality rate has fallen from two to three per cent at the height of the pandemic to 0.3.
The professor says if the downward trend continues the pandemic may end up no worse than a bad flu season.
He says the reasons for the fall could not only be down to the consequences of lockdown because cases are continuing to drop despite society opening up.
Instead he believes it is linked to better understanding of how to treat Covid patients, more testing – diluting the number of severe and fatal cases – the fact more younger people are catching the virus and that it is circulating at a much lower level.
Prof Heneghan adds that the lower death rate comes alongside a drop in Covid-related hospital admissions.
Recent figures show low numbers of Covid-19 patients being admitted despite infections having increased throughout July.
More than 1,000 Britons are now testing positive for Covid-19 each day and the true background figure is estimated at four times this amount.
There are, however, currently fewer than 50 daily hospital admissions for the virus.
Prof Heneghan says: “We reset how we calculate the death rates. We now need to reset how we communicate the risks of the virus. I am concerned people have become overly frightened and throughout this pandemic the fear instilled in people has been a real problem.
“Many people misunderstand and overestimate their risk of Covid. This uncertainty is leaving them highly anxious and affecting schools, offices and how we go about our daily lives.
“The Government needs to intervene to explain to people their true risks.”
It was suggested yesterday that another national lockdown was a possibility if the virus worsened. But Dr Heneghan says lockdown is not the answer and even local restrictions warrant better evidence they are justified.
He says: “We have data which shows the disease is not as deadly as we first thought. Despite leaving lockdown and a small increase in detection of infections in some areas, we have not seen an increase in hospital admissions, critical care beds or deaths.
“We have lost focus on the critical issue of the impact of the disease. It is becoming clear that lockdowns are harmful – during lockdown we saw an increase in non-covid deaths.
“And when we lockdown people are forced into their homes, potentially increasing the risk of infection to other vulnerable members where they are more at risk than in well-ventilated public places. We now need to rail back from opinion and start using an evidence-based approach.”
Prof Heneghan says lockdowns in Preston, Oldham and Leicester have happened “because more cases are detected as we have tested more in these areas”. But he says an increase in infections does not mean the disease is getting out of control because many of the cases will be asymptomatic or not serious.
He says emerging evidence shows opening up parts of society has not necessarily led to a rise in infections as many have assumed.
The professor says: “For example, there are 47,600 pubs in the UK – let’s say approximately 1,000 a week through the door.
“That’s nearly 30 million people in six weeks. None wearing masks and all close to each other. Yet these venues have not seen an upsurge in cases.
“When outbreaks do occur in pubs they should currently be seen as outliers. They give us an opportunity to study them, assess why the outbreak occurred, so other venues can learn and reduce their risks. Where they have broken social distancing rules this
‘We should not be punishing over 47,000 businesses just because of a handful of outbreaks’ CARL HENEGHAN
should d be made clear clear. But we should not be punishing over 47,000 businesses just because of a handful of outbreaks.
“Nor should we be talking about trading off schools against opening pubs unless we have a better evidence to understand the policies that make a difference.”
Prof Heneghan believes coronavirus should be seen in the context of other respiratory pathogens such as flu and the common cold. He is urging the Government to focus on shielding vulnerable groups and explain the risks are minimal to those outside.
He says: “As a million children go back to school and people start to go back to offices we need to explain how the risks compare to other risks people may face in life. For Covid it’s incredibly low.
“People need to understand this. Risk drives our behaviours and if we don’t understand them then it gives rise to an overcautious just-in-case approach. Only if the impact of the disease wors worsens should we consider local measures to slow the spread.”
Saying we need to learn to live alongside Covid-19 as we cannot eliminate it, he adds: “We need to reorientate our thinking.right now we are seeing below-average excess deaths for all causes for the eighth week in a row.
“The messaging, ‘Stay at home, save lives’ throughout the pandemic led people to be more fearful than they have ever been.
“One can say it worked too well but the current data shows it is currently safer to go out than it has ever been.”
He also says evidence assessed by him and his colleague, Professor Thomas Jefferson, also from the Oxford University Centre for Evidence Based Medicine, shows Covid testing is so sensitive it could pick up traces of previous infection long after recovery which could artificially inflate the number of positive cases.