Has computer modelling led to dire decisions?
● Education chief demands society must ‘redouble its efforts’ for sake of our children
BRITAIN could be facing “catastrophe by computer” because the Government is too reliant on pandemic modelling, experts fear.
Last week Boris Johnson published a cautious roadmap to normality after scientists warned him there could be 91,000 extra deaths if he scrapped all lockdown curbs at the end of April.
Modelling has driven much of the pandemic response.
The initial reaction was shaped by predictions last year suggesting 550,000 deaths in Britain if no mitigation measures were put in place.
However, Dr Thomas House, who sits on SPI-M – the group that models the pandemic for the Government – said while models are an essential tool they are far from foolproof.
Speaking in a personal capacity, Dr House said: “The thing that worries me most is when people expect too much accuracy from models of a complex system.
“This does not mean we need to ditch models – you can’t do science without them.
“However, the models are only as good as the assumptions that they are based upon.they may not account for many things, such as seasonality, details of vaccine rollout, individual behaviour.”
The modelling that led to drastic curbs last March was carried out by Imperial College’s Neil Ferguson.
Prof Ferguson was also behind research that sparked the mass culling of farm animals during the 2001 epidemic of foot and mouth disease, many of which were not infected.
Prof Ferguson has said that so many animals were infected by the time the outbreak was uncovered that a more precise cull was impossible. Failing to act would have made the problem far worse.
But Michael Thrusfield, professor of veterinary epidemiology at Edinburgh University, carried out an investigation into the modelling which concluded it was based on flawed assumptions.
He said: “The basic principles on modelling described in our papers and textbooks apply to this Covid-19 crisis as much as they did to the foot and mouth outbreak.
“With Covid we risk catastrophe by computer. With foot and mouth it was carnage by computer. “Modellers do not have to accept personal responsibility for the fact their scientific advice translates to policy and that policy, as we can see, can be extremely damaging.
He added: “Millions of animals unnecessarily lost their lives, not to mention the emotional toll it took on farmers.”
Prof Carl Heneghan, head of the Centre for Evidence-based Medicine at Oxford University, said: “The world will look very different in two weeks and the idea that you can sit down and predict this, or even predict that by mid-june we will be out of lockdown, is not evidence-based.”
Pledges all secondary school pupils and families will be offered weekly tests
SCHOOLS and society must redouble efforts to recoup the lost childhood suffered by Britain’s young people during lockdown, Education Secretary Gavin Williamson has said.
Writing in today’s Sunday Express, he said children have missed out on “what should have been a carefree and exciting time of shared adventures and discoveries”.
Mr Williamson said: “We must redouble our efforts to recoup this lost childhood”, adding: “Education is a birthright and children only get one shot at it”.
His comments come as Chief Scout Bear Grylls, also writing in today’s paper, said many parents may feel childhood has been put on hold, with their child’s world “much smaller and bleaker”.
But, the 46-year-old adventurer, who has been Chief Scout since 2009, added that Scouts can show children “that we can get through this and come out stronger on the other side; that the world is wait
GENERATION LOCKDOWN ing for them”. Mr Williamson also insisted “schools didn’t suddenly become unsafe” and the reason schools closed to most pupils was “to reduce the need for people to leave their houses and stop the spread of the virus”.
He pledged the Government will take steps to ensure that Covid will not “define their childhood”.
As children prepare to go back to the classroom, the Education Secretary promised that additional safety measures will be put in place, including giving secondary school pupils three Covid-19 tests in the first two weeks, then weekly. It was announced today all families of schoolchildren will be offered free twice-weekly tests.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock said: “Regular testing of households and childcare support bubbles of primary and secondary school children is another tool we are making available to help keep schools safe.”
Mr Williamson also backed the guidance that all pupils except primary school children should wear face masks in classrooms when it is not possible to keep to the two-metre rule, unless there are exceptional circumstances.
Although not a legal requirement, the recommendation goes further than earlier advice which stated masks should be used in corridors and communal areas in parts of England under Tier 2 or Tier 3 restrictions.
This is a U-turn on advice last autumn when Downing Street rejected masks in class, with Boris Johnson saying the idea was “nonsensical” and No10 stated it “would obstruct communication between teachers and pupils”.
CRUSADE
However, the Government was last night accused of breaking World Health Organisation guidance without evaluating the harms, including to either mental or physical health.
Leading public health expert Professor Allyson Pollock said: “This is completely ludicrous.
“Parents and schools should challenge the Government and ask for the scientific evidence in support of masks and the studies showing the risks and benefits.”
Prof Pollock, director of the Newcastle University Centre for Excellence in Regulatory Science, added: “This is not about public health. Masks have become a political football.
“There has been no evaluation of this measure in schools which may well do more harm in spreading germs because masks worn in this setting will become nothing better than a dirty handkerchief, especially when the temperature changes and noses run.
“It’s disgusting. The analogy is that masks are like petri dishes of infection and more germs.
“We need to ask ourselves, is this measure proportionate? Children are not the major drivers of coronavirus, community prevalence is falling – far better to ensure good hygiene and ventilation, including opening windows.”
Dr Elizabeth Evans, spokeswoman for the Medical Freedom Alliance, which campaigns for informed medical consent, said: “Studies of community-based mask wearing have shown they have no benefit in reducing transmission of coronavirus and if children are being forced to have a negative test before they go to school, what is the point in putting them all in masks?
“We already have an epidemic of anxiety, eating disorders, self-harm and suicidal thoughts among teenagers who have been forced not to have normal interactions.
“They want to get back to their friends but forcing them to have repeated tests and wear masks is cruel and I fear some will
risk
spreading
go into despair.” Liz Cole, co-founder of Usforthem, the grassroots schools campaign backed by tens of thousands of parents and pupils, said: “It is deeply concerning that with the introduction of face coverings in the classroom, something the PM himself said was ‘nonsensical’, secondary schools pupils are now returning to school under stricter restrictions than last autumn, despite the enormous progress made in protecting the most vulnerable through the vaccination programme.”
She added: “The Government must stop sacrificing children’s futures and either immediately reverse this recommendation or publish new scientific evidence to show it is justified and has been thoroughly evaluated.”
A Public Health England spokeswoman said: “As an additional precautionary measure, adults and students in secondary schools are asked to wear face coverings indoors, in classrooms and where social distancing is not possible.”
THE SNP has sensationally lost its majority support for independence as the Scottish public turn against Nicola Sturgeon over the Alex Salmond scandal.
A new opinion poll has found that 44 per cent of people would vote to stay in the UK if a referendum were held tomorrow, with 43 per cent saying they would vote to leave.
Once “don’t know” answers are removed, the two sides are deadlocked on the constitutional question.
It is a devastating setback for Ms Sturgeon after 22 consecutive polls showed a majority of Scots would vote for independence.
Our survey also found that most people believe the SNP has been in power for “too long” after 14 years.
The fall in support for the nationalist cause appears to be linked to the Scottish Government’s handling of the Salmond affair.
‘The two sides are deadlocked’
During a remarkable six-hour evidence session at Holyrood on Friday, the former first minister repeatedly said, under oath, that his successor had broken the ministerial code.
The Survation poll – carried out together with our sister paper the Sunday Mail – quizzed 1,011 adults in Scotland on Thursday and Friday.
It found that 50 per cent of people think the First Minister should resign if she is found to have broken the rules, as Mr Salmond alleges.
Only 33 per cent think she can continue in her post under those circumstances, with
17 per cent unsure.
The poll also found
39 per cent of people
believe there has been a government cover-up in relation to its handling of sexual harassment claims against Mr Salmond.
This compares to 32 per cent who believe there has not, with 30 per cent unsure.
Even more convincingly, 44 per cent of people believe the handling of the harassment claims against Mr Salmond represents a failure of government.
This compares to 32 per cent who disagree and 24 per cent who are unsure.
People are less convinced by Mr Salmond’s claim that there has been a plot to damage his reputation carried out by individuals in the SNP and the Scottish Government. Only 32 per cent agree with this statement, compared to 34
per cent who disagree and 34 per cent who are unsure.
The final question in this part of the survey provides further evidence that public opinion is turning against the party.
Of those questioned, 43 per cent believe the SNP has been in government for too long, compared to 41 per cent who say it has not and 16 per cent who do not know.
The Holyrood committee is looking into the botched investigation of the harassment complaints against Mr Salmond.
It was ruled to be “unlawful” and “tainted by apparent bias” following a judicial review at the High Court in Edinburgh, with Mr Salmond awarded £512,000 in costs.
He was later cleared of a number of sexual assault charges after a trial at the same court last year.
As well as the committee set up to probe the affair, Ms Sturgeon is also being investigated by James Hamilton QC, an independent adviser on the ministerial code.