BEAR AND DRAGON AT BIDEN
Experts also suspect Putin had no intention of fully invading.
Internal polls in Russia do not support a war and vital elections are coming.
But Putin has shown his base that he can still put Russia at the front and centre of global affairs.
He has managed to secure a completely unconditional bilateral meeting with President Biden while in the same breath shining a spotlight on the depths of disunity and division in Europe and its NATO members over its Russia policy.
Russian expert Jade Mcglynn, of the Henry Jackson Society, said: “While the threat of harsher US
sanctions may have contributed to Putin’s decision, this wasn’t the deciding factor.
“There was never going to be a full-scale invasion. His internal polls show that Russians don’t want a full-scale war with Ukraine.
“But there was already an invasion, of course.
“People will forget that more brigades have been moved permanently to Crimea and 27 Ukrainian soldiers died this year due to the broken down ceasefire.”
She added: “If you are trying to pressure the West you are going to take advantage of the fact that another actor is already stretching it
on one front. Russia and China are watching each other closely.”
Fighting military conflicts on two separate fronts would be a nightmare for thewest.
“The UK doesn’t act alone, of course, but there is not one shred of doubt that Britain’s military is now so thinly stretched that we would not be able to cope militarily if presented with two extensive military conflicts by Russia and China at the same time,” said Robert Clark, Defence Fellow at the Henry Jackson Society.
“Fifteen years ago, when the United Kingdom’s forces were a third stronger than today, we were
struggling to maintain our commitment in Iraq and Afghanistan.
“People who think we would commit land and air forces against Russia and reserve our maritime forces for China miss the point, that Britain leads the Joint Expeditionary Force, which includes Denmark, Finland, Estonia, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Sweden and Norway.
“The Royal Navy would be expected to lead efforts to ensure that the vital GIUK gap between Greenland, Iceland and the UK is kept open from Russian domination so as to allow vital US reinforcements across the North Atlantic.”