Brexit will be felt on May 6, says poll expert
THE battle lines of Brexit are likely to shape the results of this week’s elections, according to one of Britain’s top polling experts.
Sir John Curtice, pictured below, says recent strong polling for the Conservatives suggests that Sir Keir Starmer faces a “very, very sticky wicket” and argues Labour will struggle to win over voters in areas that voted for Brexit.
In Hartlepool, Labour is fighting a by-election to stop thetories winning there for the first time since the constituency began, and Sir John said the race is close.
But he predicts Conservatives will have a hard time in Remain areas and there is no expectation that the party’s Shaun Bailey will win the race for Mayor of London.
He said: “Thetories will struggle in Remain-voting Britain.
“Even if Labour do no worse than they did in 2019, among
Leave voters, they will lose ground in Leave-voting Britain... The
‘London is now a one-party state’
counterpoint to that is London is a walkover [for Labour].
“London is now a one-party state and thetories are desperately weak in London in the wake of Brexit.”
Sir John was speaking before the publication of a Survation poll that put the Conservatives on 39 per cent and Labour just a point behind on voting intention in a general election.
The University of Strathclyde professor said that he also expects a “constitutional clash” is on the way, with pro-independence candidates heading for a majority in the Scottish parliament.
He anticipates the SNP and the Greens winning more than 70 of the 129 seats and this would put a second independence referendum firmly on the political agenda.
He added: “They don’t necessarily want a referendum in the next two years but they do want one in the next five.”
Meanwhile, a new poll by Opinium found that thetories had a five point lead [42 per cent] over Labour, down from an 11 point lead last week. It also found the Conservatives had 45 per cent approval for its handling of the Covid crisis, compared to 36 per cent disapproval.