JABS BREAK THE LINK TO SERIOUS ILLNESS
VACCINES appear to have “broken the link” between Covid and becoming seriously ill and we must now weigh up the harm caused by prolonging the lockdown, an NHS executive says.
Chris Hopson, chief executive of NHS Providers, said there were “other conditions and harms we need to consider” beyond Covid and called for a “debate about what the NHS prioritises”.
He said that while previously there was no choice other than the lockdown to stop the NHS from being overwhelmed, “the situation has changed”.
Mr Hopson was speaking as heated discussions went on over whether the Government should go ahead with the planned lifting of restrictions on June 21.
Infection numbers have been increasing and there have been warnings that loosening the rules further could lead to a spike, once again putting hospitals under pressure.
There were 13 deaths reported yesterday, and 5,765 new cases. This is a 70 per cent rise in cases on the previous week.
Surge testing is to be rolled out in areas of Berkshire to tackle the
‘Areas have been able to cope well with any surge
in cases’
spread of the Delta strain, the variant first identified in India. It was found to be spreading in the community.
But on the vaccine front, more than three-quarters of adults had received one dose, and more than a half had received both doses.
Mr Hopson said the number of people in hospital with the Delta variant is rising but not “very significantly”.
The head of NHS Providers, the membership organisation for England’s ambulance, community, hospital and mental health trusts, said: “The rising infection rate is only part of the story.
“We also need to look at the link between those rises and how many will be significantly ill or at risk of mortality”.
“What we are seeing is that the vaccine has broken the link between the numbers of people coming into hospital with Covid and those suffering serious illness and death.
“Bolton has already passed its peak of infection, having had 170 in November and a week ago it was down to 50. It has been able to cope well with the surge.
“There is good reason to believe this will be shown in other areas in the same way.
“The main reason for the lockdown was to protect the NHS and prevent it being overwhelmed. For us, there was no choice about lockdown. But the situation has changed.we now need to properly weigh up and measure things.
“If we open up there will be a surge in community infection rates and more people in hospital. This means we will have to dial back on elective surgery.
“There are other conditions and harms we need to consider. We now need a debate about what the NHS prioritises.
“I know politicians like to keep things simple and top-line but the current debate is too simplistic.
“We need to consider the lower risk of infection due to the vaccine and the harms of lockdown.
“Our politicians need to lead this debate. There is no doubt about the significant challenge with the size of the waiting list and how big that is.”
The Government said that no final decision had been made on whether the June 21 date would go ahead but added that nothing in the current statistics persuaded it otherwise.
A spokeswoman said: “As the Prime Minister has set out, we can see nothing in the data at the moment to suggest that we need to deviate from the roadmap.”
However Prof
Stephen Reicher, a member of government advisory group Spi-b, which feeds into Sage, argued that the current data does not justify lifting restrictions.
He said: “By the Government’s own criteria it’s quite clear that it would be foolish to proceed on the data that we’ve got at the moment.
“The risk would be very great indeed.
“And, of course, it’s a balance of risks but I think it would be a major risk to go further in opening up.”
Dr Adam Kucharski, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene &
Tropical
Medicine, also said the transmissibility of the Indian variant could see a “big number” of people admitted to hospital with the virus.
However, Professor Carl Heneghan, an urgent care doctor and director of the Centre for Evidence-based Medicine in Oxford, said many of those going into hospital were not dangerously ill but were being admitted for a short period to take advantage of new treatments.
He said: “People need to think very hard about how we define a wave going forward because if it is defined as just cases we will be in this forever.”
New NHS England figures show there is now a total of 124 patients on mechanical ventilation compared to the January peak of
3,736. In Scotland, eight are on ventilators. It is estimated approximately 25 per cent of those on ventilators are long-term patients.
Prof Heneghan added: “Individuals are too quick to assume that increases in infections are all about the virus, without assessing the context in which the virus has spread – the social deprivation, [other simultaneous ailments] and economic circumstances of those patients.”
The race to vaccinate is continuing this weekend. As of Friday more than 40 million people had received a first dose and 27 million people had received both.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock said: “It is an astonishing achievement to deliver over 40 million first doses in under six months.
“It seems with every day we pass another major vaccination milestone on the road back to recovery.”
Last night, former Prime Minister Tony Blair, whose Institute for Global Change has championed “health passes”, said it is “time to distinguish for the purposes of freedom” those who have had the vaccine.
The institute suggests using the pass domestically and abroad, and says: “For as long as the world goes largely unvaccinated and the risk of a new variant remains significant, it’s vital that we have an alternative to the blunt tool of lockdowns to enable the country to live freely and safely.”
Mr Blair said: “It therefore makes no sense at all to treat those who have had a vaccination as the same as those who haven’t.”