Evidence shows Howe may not be calling the Toon for very long
GARETH SOUTHGATE takes charge of England for the 67th time on Friday night against Albania. He has become part of the furniture at St George’s Park but all good things come to an end at some point.
Southgate’s present contract runs until next year’sworld Cup in
Qatar. He closed the door on discussion of managerial life beyond that in midweek, saying opaquely that talks on any extension are a private matter between him and the FA.
Southgate has made no secret of his desire to return to club football down the track and next December would seem a natural moment to leave the international stage.
By the end of that tournament, he will have been in post for six-and-a-half years.
It is likely that Eddie Howe will finally take charge of Newcastle after the international break.
He would presumably like to become part of the furniture at St James’ Park but he might be better served renting on Tyneside rather than putting down roots.
Past evidence shows the first manager through the door at mega-money clubs does not tend to last the course.
For all the owners’ talk of long-term projects, wealth brings with it impatience.
When you can afford every thoroughbred in the stable, it does not take much in the way of disappointment to change horses.
Howe will have a defined short-term objective in avoiding relegation this season but the demand for a rapid ascent beyond that will not give him much stability.
Look at the two Premier League clubs to have enjoyed parallel financial injections over the past 20 years – the pair Newcastle would like to emulate – and the long-term omens are not good for Howe.
Claudio Ranieri lasted 17 months into Roman Abramovich’s reign at Chelsea after the Russian billionaire bought the club in 2003.
Mark Hughes survived 14 months after the Abu Dhabi takeover at Manchester City in 2008 before he was removed. In both cases, it was the next man in – Jose Mourinho at Stamford Bridge and Roberto Mancini at The Etihad – who took the glory with the new owners’ first trophy.
The first guy was the fall guy.
The timeline here from rapaciously aspirational employers – 14 to 17 months – is instructive. In 14 months theworld Cup will just have finished and Southgate (right) may be looking for an interesting new challenge.you join the dots.
Newcastle may or may not have thought of this.
The probability, given the reports of a rather chaotic new operation struggling with joined-up thinking, is that they haven’t.
But wellorganised clubs operate at least one manager ahead, keeping tabs on likely future targets for when the current boss departs.
Newcastle should definitely do so with Southgate.
This is the national team’s most successful manager since Sir Alf Ramsey, having guided England to aworld Cup semi-final and a European Championship final.
THERE might be some friction at the style of football his instinctively cautious approach may bring and some sniping at his modest record down the road at Middlesbrough but a lot of water has passed under the bridge since then.
The lure of being the next man in at Newcastle on their Saudi-funded sky ride to the top may prove impossible to resist.
Technically, of course, Steve
Bruce was the first manager of the PIF era at St James’ Park but one game while he sorted out his pay-off hardly qualifies. Howe is the individual who will shoulder the responsibility of shaping the first stage of the revolution.
Phase one of his tenure – before any cavalry can arrive in the January transfer window – will involve maximising his existing assets. He has a head start in winning over his new charges, with three former Bournemouth players – Callum Wilson, Ryan Fraser and Matt Ritchie – in the squad. Howe’s record at Bournemouth, taken as a whole, suggests he is capable of doing so.
One relegation versus three promotions and five seasons of Premier League survival on the south coast represents a positive body of work.
But while he holds the magical appeal to the Newcastle support of not being Bruce, they could be forgiven for feeling underwhelmed at his appointment.
All the money in the world and this was what we came up with?
In the week that Spurs ushered in Antonio Conte, it makes for an unflattering comparison.
The best advice to Howe is to enjoy Newcastle while it lasts.