Drones ‘could take out’ Iranian nuclear plants
MOST of Iran’s nuclear facilities are vulnerable to devastating drone attacks, a report has found.
And using unmanned vehicles (UMVS) laden with explosives could lead to a critical Fukushimastyle reactor meltdown.
The revelation comes as diplomatic efforts to rein in Iran’s nuclear ambitions continue to flounder.
Last night, former Italian foreign minister Giulio Terzi warned: “The Iran nuclear deal is already on life support and it is very possible that it might falter altogether due to Iran’s shameless violations.”
Analysis of its 22 nuclear facilities by Dr Bahram Ghiassee, of the Henry Jackson Society think-tank, found that all except the Fordow fuel enrichment plant, near Qom – built into a mountain – are vulnerable to drone strikes which could incapacitate them.
And burying the Fordow facility under 60 metres of rock does not protect it from attacks on airshafts and other external supply systems which could halt enriched uranium production for prolonged periods.
While some facilities would suffer little overall impact if attacked, there are glaring exceptions, the report found.
These include the conversion plant at the Esfahan nuclear technology centre – a critical part of the nuclear fuel cycle – and nuclear power plants such as the one in Bushehr, on the Persian Gulf.
The same applies to the Natanz enrichment facility, now being rebuilt into a mountain after an explosion – believed to have been caused by Israel – which destroyed the previous overland structure.
Nuclear power plants are built to withstand light aerial attacks but Bushehr’s ancillary facilities “are highly vulnerable to aerial attacks, including drone strikes”, said the report, including by “commercially available surface UMVS and submersible UMVS with an operating range of 120km”.
Dr Ghiassee, a nuclear consultant, added: “A synchronised attack on the cooling water facilities, external electricity supply and electricity distribution systems could lead to the overheating of the reactor core and the spent fuel ponds.
“Under such circumstances, as in Japan’s Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011, the reactor core could melt down.”
Such an eventuality would constitute a failure for Western foreign policy objectives.
Attacks against Iranian nuclear facilities are not new.
Previous actions have included the assassination of scientists, fires at Natanz in 2020, believed to have been caused by the provision of faulty materials following Mossad’s infiltration of the supply chain, and a cyber strike in 2010 using the Stuxnet computer virus which reportedly destroyed a fifth of
Iran’s nuclear centrifuges. And drones have been used, most recently in June last year on an Iran Centrifuge Technology Company facility in Karaj.
Though not confirmed by Tel Aviv, these are believed to have been carried out by Israel after it openly vowed never to allow Iran – which has threatened to “wipe Israel off the map” – to possess nuclear weapons.
“We have used force against our enemies in the past and we are convinced that, in extreme situations, there is a need to act
using military means,” said Israeli deputy defence minister Alon Schuster recently.
The JCPOA nuclear deal with Iran, struck in 2015 by President Barack Obama, the UK, France, Germany, Russia and China, has teetered on the verge of collapse since 2018, when Donald Trump withdrew, citing abuses and criticism that it had failed to rein in Iranian regional hostility.
Attempts to revive it have so far stalled, with Iran making increasingly difficult demands.
In the meantime, the country has continued its programme, with some experts estimating it is now just weeks away from having uranium enriched up to 90 per cent – called the “breakout moment” in the JCPOA.
Earlier this month, Boris Johnson acknowledged that “time is running out to reach an agreement”.
If the effort fails, Dr Ghiassee said, Iran should expect an increase in sabotage, along with cyber and drone attacks.
But Iran would fight back, potentially using its proxies in Iraq, Lebanon and Syria to launch strikes against Israel’s nuclear sites and other infrastructure, while also targeting Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Even a successful conclusion “may not prevent sporadic sabotage attacks, as Israel has reiterated that it will try to delay or destroy Iran’s nuclear programme,” he added.
Speaking to the Sunday Express, Mr Terzi suggested that one way thewest could hamper Iran’s ambitions would be through the prosecution of its human rights abuses.
This includes the killing of 1,500 civilians in 2019 – overseen by the head of the judiciary Ebrahim Raisi – as protests against the regime spread across 200 cities.
“Raisi’s ascension to the presidency is the clearest indicator to date of the regime’s expectation of impunity where human rights are concerned,” said Mr Terzi.
“Western policy-makers should recognise and exploit their opportunities to confront that impunity.
“Expanding pressure on the regime over human rights abuses would benefit the security interests of Western nations.
“It would force the regime to focus on domestic affairs and to scale back its foreign provocations, including the ongoing expansion of the Iranian nuclear programme.”