The French revolution
Disgruntled voters poised to give the far-right a chance to punish Macron
FRENCH voters go to the polls today in an election which could trigger a political “earthquake” across Europe.
The cost-of-living crisis has fuelled support for Marine Le Pen, who leads the successor party to the Far Right National Front, which was headed by her father Jean-marie.
The replacement of President Emmanuel Macron by Le Pen would shake the European Union to its core and raise major questions about future defence and intelligence co-operation between France and the UK.
Today’s vote is likely to see a run-off contest between Macron and Le Pen on April 24.
When the pair faced off in the 2017 election, opponents of Le Pen from across the ideological divide swung behind Macron and handed him a landslide.
This time there is mounting speculation disillusioned voters will stay at home rather than grant the 44-year-old president another term.
Now rebranded National Rally, Le Pen has worked to rid her party of its reputation for xenophobia and toned down its euroscepticism. But victory for the populist right would still be seen as a new French revolution.
Stephen Crabb, former work and pensions secretary who now chairs Westminster’s all-party group on France, described Le Pen’s position in the polls as “perilously close”.
He said: “We have been living through an extraordinary period of political turbulence right across the developed world, but a Le Pen victory – a National Front victory – in a nation like France which prides itself on ideals of liberte, egalite and fraternite, would set off a political earthquake we’ve not seen in decades in western Europe.”
And he warned that a Le Pen presidency would present “enormous challenges to our countries being able to work together in a progressive way”.
Even if Macron stays in power, a strong second-place finish by Le Pen would shock the continent.a poll last week suggested Macron might win by just three percentage points.
Mr Crabb said Macron needed to “win well” for the “good of France, for the good of Franco-british relations,” and for the good of the “European effort against Russia”.
He said: “I think when it comes to the
crunch, the majority of French people – even if they’ve been extremely unhappy with Macron over the last five years – will hold their noses and go out and re-elect him.”
This happened in 2002, when Jacques Chirac humiliated Jean-marie Le Pen, winning more than 80 per cent of the vote.
Joseph Downing, an expert in French politics at Aston University, said: “The problem is, how many times can you mobilise voters in that negative way?” He also suggested Le Pen is striking a chord with voters “because one of Macron’s key issues is that he’s seen as arrogant and aloof – because, frankly, he is”.
And while he did not want to downplay the xenophobia among supporters of her party, he said their “main concerns are pretty much bog standard political issues” such as the erosion of pensions, the tax burden, and “their children being poorer than they are”.
A second striking feature of the French election is the collapse in support for traditional bastions of power on the Left and the Right.the once mighty Socialist Party is scoring around two per cent in repeated polls and The Republicans hovering below 10 per cent.
There are strong hopes that once the election is over, France and the UK could enjoy a more pragmatic partnership.
Tensions have flared between Paris and London in recent years over issues ranging from the Brexit deal, fishing rights and illegal immigration across the Channel.
Former international development secretary Andrew Mitchell said: “The election is a vital moment to rebuild relations between Britain and France.
Whoever wins, we must use this moment to radically improve the situation between us, most especially for tackling asylum seekers risking their lives across the Channel.”
Last year it was reported that Macron described Britain as a country “led by a clown”, but past prime ministers and presidents have all had to navigate policy clashes and ancient rivalries – and few relationships can match the strategic importance of the
UK and France.