Russia doesn’t believe Nato would go nuclear
Putin has been emboldened by Moscow’s belief Nato does not have the “courage” to use nuclear weapons, even in retaliation, Russian officers have said.
The claim comes as they warn he will not be satisfied with territorial gains in eastern Ukraine, and will return “after a period of consolidation” to mount a new offensive in Moldova and possibly Poland.
Last night separate sources revealed Russia already has detailed plans to invade Moldova – which it shelved when it failed to take western Ukraine.
The information is said to have been briefed by a senior serving Russian Air Force official who has been instrumental in helping Ukraine and the West gauge what level of weaponry is needed to counter separate Russia offensives in Ukraine.
“The plan was that, following a quick victory over Ukraine, the door would be wide open for a follow-up operation involving Moldova,” said a Whitehall intelligence source.
“The night invasion plan involved two Rifle Brigades moving over the border, backed by a massive low-level attack by several Russian Air Force squadrons.
“Whether it is still relevant following stiff resistance from Ukraine forces is open to question.”
Mysterious explosions this week in Transnistria – the breakaway Russian-controlled territory in Moldova which boasts 1,500 troops – caused speculation that Moscow was preparing to make a move on the capital, Chisinau.
But analysts believe Russia doesn’t have enough soldiers for this while it is engaged in Donbas, and dismissed the attacks as a way of persuading Ukrainian forces to remain in the west.
Following its failure to achieve a lightning strike against Kyiv’s government, Russian forces now want to establish a land corridor from Donbas all the way to Moldova, cutting off Ukraine from the sea.
This operation is expected to be completed within six months though, privately, Russian generals concede they will not be able to take the strategic port of Odesa, following the sinking of the flagship Moskva.
“We expect to have established a land corridor to the outskirts of Odesa by Christmas. This is something Putin will never give up,” said one recently retired commander from his home in Crimea.
“But this will not be the end of the story. It is already clear from what is being discussed at the highest levels that Putin has a second campaign in mind.”
The shape of that conflict will “depend on Nato”, he said.
“The thinking today is that if Nato increases its presence in Romania and Bulgaria and the Black Sea coast, Russia will challenge it to prompt a conclusion.
“We will continue efforts to take Odesa and, from there, to enter Transnistria and then Moldova, allowing a joining of Russian forces from Belarus.
“It may also mean entering Poland or Lithuania to secure a bridge to Kaliningrad.
“While the aims are applauded, they are based on a firm belief that Nato lacks the
moral courage to use nuclear weapons. Putin does not. Many of us are privately concerned at this level of escalation.”
Putin has threatened “lightning-fast” retaliation against nations that intervene in his faltering invasion of Ukraine.
Speaking in St Petersburg last week, he warned: “We have all the tools for this, and we will use them if necessary.”
The comments have been taken as a reference to tactical nuclear weapons, and Foreign Secretary Liz Truss is reported to be taking the threat seriously.
“We have to understand that Russia has a different approach to nuclear weapons to us,” said Bob Seely, the Tory MP for the Isle of Wight, a former soldier and an expert in Russian military strategy. “So many ASSESSVLADIMIR
ments before this war have proved wrong. Russia miscalculated. So did Ukraine. We miscalculated too. We have to ensure we don’t miscalculate again now.”
And the great-granddaughter of ex-soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev yesterday said Russia and the West are closer to nuclear war than during the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Nina Khrushcheva said despite a “war of words”, both President John F Kennedy and her great-grandfather agreed to de-escalate as soon as there was a real threat of nuclear action in 1962.
But of the current situation she said: “I don’t see today any side, particularly the Russian side, backing off, and that’s what really scares me the most.”
Ms Khrushcheva’s words come as Russian
state TV broadcast a provocative simulation of a nuclear missile strike on London, Paris and Berlin.
Hosts on Channel One’s 60 Minutes said the cities could be hit within 200 seconds of nuclear missiles being launched.
And on one primetime show, “The Evening With Vladimir Solovyov”, the head of Russia Today Margarita Simonyan said: “Either we lose in Ukraine or the Third World War starts. I think World War Three is more realistic.
“Knowing our leader, the most incredible outcome that all this will end with a nuclear strike seems more probable to me than the other course of events.”
Vladimir Solovyov added: “But we will go to heaven, while they will simply croak.”