Putin’s power trip after Finland opts to join Nato
RUSSIA has cut off its electricity supplies to Finland after the Nordic country confirmed it would join Nato.
But experts said that Russia’s retaliatory options are actually “quite limited”.
Finnish President Sauli Niinisto had made a “direct and straightforward” phone call to Vladimir Putin, informing him of the decision yesterday.
He said the conversation was “conducted without aggravations” as both parties worked to “avoid tensions”.
The prime ministers of both Finland and Sweden, Sanna Marin and Magdalena Andersson, are widely expected to end decades of strategic neutrality and formally announce their decision to join the defensive alliance today.the move – prompted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – will further inflame Putin, who cited fears of Nato expansion as one of the pretexts for the large-scale military assault on February 24.
According to the Kremlin, Putin told his Finnish counterpart that “abandoning the traditional policy of military neutrality would be a mistake, since there are no threats to Finland’s security”.
Moscow immediately retaliated yesterday by ordering Russian energy supplier RAO Nordic to suspend deliveries of electricity.
But its decision to cite “unpaid bills” showed it would continue to choose tactics which keep below the threshold of declaring war.
Finland imports only 10 per cent of its electricity from Russia.
Last night former Finnish PM Alexander Stubb wrote on Twitter: “Relax, we got this. There is a reason we have diversified our energy portfolio. This is it. Easy transition to alternative sources.”
Finland shares an 810-mile border with
Russia and boasts a capable wartime force of 280,000 soldiers and 900,000 reservists which have become more integrated with
Nato forces over the past few years.
While only a quarter of the population approved of Nato membership before the war, that figure has now increased to 76 per cent.
However, Russia’s main target is expected to be Sweden whose respected navy and military assets on the island of Gotland will provide valuable muscle for
the Nato alliance in the Baltic.with just 57 per cent supporting Nato membership, it is viewed as easier to influence.
Alexander Lord, Europe and Eurasia analyst at Sibylline strategic risk group, said: “Even now, Sweden is more cautious about moving towards Nato.
This offers Russia more potential avenues for misinformation operations directed at swaying the population.”
“But, despite its nuclear rhetoric, the reality is that Russia’s options for retaliation are very limited, given the significant commitment it has made to the Ukraine campaign.
He believed it would focus on “sub-threshold operations, such as cyber attacks”.