Don’t be swayed by vile Putin’s ‘nuclear bluster’
WESTERN leaders must resist being swayed by Vladimir Putin’s “nuclear bluster”, a new report has warned.
It comes after Russia assumed the presidency of the UN Security Council yesterday – a move described by Ukrainian officials as “the worst joke ever for April Fool’s Day”.
Presidency of the council rotates on a monthly basis. The last time Russia held it was February last year – the month it launched its invasion of Ukraine.
More than a year into the conflict a new report warns that Western leaders are taking Putin’s repeated nuclear threats too literally.
The report, by the Chatham House think tank, advised against conflating his nuclear rhetoric with Russia’s nuclear policy.
Such is the West’s “fear-induced paralysis” that it is allowing Putin to achieve his objectives “without firing a shot”, said Keir Giles, author of the report.
The results of accepting Putin’s narrative have been significant, including limiting the supply of war-winning weapons to “trickling homeopathic doses” and even “fear of the prospect of Ukrainian victory”, due to worries that Putin will push the nuclear button.
But inaction also risks encouraging other rogue states like Iran that possession of nuclear weapons is a “get out of jail free card”.
One example it cites is a recent report that Russia was planning to plant tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus as a response to the UK arming Challenger tanks with depleted uranium tank shells.
“In fact, the Belarus plan was first announced last year and has absolutely nothing to do with the UK’S actions,” said Mr Giles.
“Whether it is ever enacted is open to question. Russia has been threatening to send Iskander missiles to Kaliningrad for decades. Yet we are seeing Russia’s narrative adopted by Western media and governments.
“This is the headspace that Russia wants the world to occupy, and it is succeeding.”
Instead of believing
Russian rhetoric, governments should focus on Russia’s actual nuclear posture, he said.
“There is a chase between Putin’s verbal bluster and the fact it is Russia’s armed forces and not Putin who own and control the country’s nuclear weapons. It is the armed forces who ultimately control when they can be used.”
While some Western capitals reacted with alarm at news last year that Russia’s military leadership had discussed use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, this should actually provide reassurance.
“The option has been discussed and, as expected, rejected.
“Actual use of nuclear weapons by Russia remains not impossible, but highly unlikely. A decision to launch a strike would have to overcome a range of systemic and practical obstacles. The global consequences of breaking the nuclear taboo would be severe for Russia. “It is right to be cautious, but that caution must be based on reality, rather than the fantasy that Putin has created for us.”
Furious at Russia assuming the Security Council presidency, Volodymyr Zelensky has called for it to be stripped of its member status. But the US – one of five permanent members alongside the UK, France, China and Russia – said the UN charter did not allow for the removal of a permanent member. “Unfortunately, Russia is a permanent member of the Security Council and no feasible international legal pathway exists to change that reality,” said White House press secretary Karine Jean-pierre.
Last night, the UK Ministry of Defence said Russia’s winter offensive to seize control of the whole of Donbas has failed after just 80 days. The temporary advantage Russia gained from mobilising some 300,000 troops in the autumn has been largely squandered with “only marginal gains at the cost of tens of thousands of casualties”.
It said Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov was “pushing the limits of how far Russia’s political leadership will tolerate failure”.
‘Fear-induced paralysis is helping Russia’