Is No.10 eyeing up a summer election?

RISHI Sunak is pondering a summer general election amid fears that the US presidential race will hand a major publicity coup to Nigel Farage.

Concern about a fresh wave of Channel migrants has also prompted the Prime Minister to consider a June or July vote, a senior Downing Street insider has revealed.

Allies believe he could face a confidence vote by hostile Tory MPS if the party loses hundreds of councillors in the local elections on May 2.

Mr Sunak has said his “working assumption” is that a general election will take place “in the second half of this year”, while Levelling Up Secretary Michael Gove has named November 14 or 21 as likely dates.

But one of the PM’S top aides revealed there is concern in No 10 about the November 5 election in the US, when ex-president Donald Trump will take on incumbent Joe Biden.

Brexit-backing Nigel Farage, former leader of Reform UK, has a close relationship with Mr Trump and it is thought he will enjoy a high profile as an ally, with his views regularly sought by the media.

Conservatives do believe there is a “path to victory” but it requires winning back former Tory voters who switched to Reform, which now has the support of around 11 per cent of voters, according to a Wethink poll.

A source said: “There are good reasons not to wait until the winter. The US election is one, because it will provide a huge boost to Nigel Farage.”

The PM is also considering the effect of many more small boat crossings once the weather improves, even though legislation allowing the removal of asylum seekers to Rwanda is likely to pass into law in April.

But the main argument for delaying the election is to provide time for the message that the economy is improving to sink in, according to those close to Mr Sunak. A 2p cut to National Insurance comes into effect on Saturday, increasing take-home pay for many workers, in addition to the 2p cut implemented in January.

Optimistic insiders believe the Tories could remain in power if they start the campaign at as much as 10 points behind Labour. The source close to the PM noted: “Historically, the governing party makes gains during the election campaign.”

But the Tories are bracing themselves for the loss of up to half their council seats in the local elections – and are likely to lose a by-election in Blackpool South on the same day.

Allies of Mr Sunak fear the threshold of 52 no-confidence letters, enough to trigger a vote of all Tory MPS, could be reached after the polls.