Labour has not won yet...apathy is a real danger
TEN DAYS on from the eneral election announcement and both major parties have had difficult moments. Rishi Sunak, standing without coat or umbrella in the pouring rain, while at the gates of Downing Street a loudspeaker blared out the song, “Things Can Only Get Better”, will be etched in our memory.
In the immediate days afterwards, it certainly didn’t get any better for the Tories.
Conservative strategists were surprised at the speed and nimbleness of the flying start to Labour’s campaign. But as so often in politics, you can’t always see what is around the corner.
For the Labour leadership, it was all about “who’s going to be allowed to stand” and the media attention on the fate of the first black female MP, Diane Abbott.
It hasn’t helped Keir Starmer’s efforts to dampen down this row that conflicting signals are coming from the hierarchy in the party.
All of this has been a diversion from the very real issues that face our country – and should be at the heart of Labour’s campaign.
The state of the health service, the fragile nature of social care, the hundreds of thousands of young people disconnected from the labour market.
An education system creaking at the seams, where one in five pupils are missing at least 10 per cent of their education because of absence.
Not to mention “long Covid” in the aftermath of the pandemic, with energy levels down and productivity way below our competitors.
At the beginning of the campaign, there was an assumption, not least by the pundits and commentators, that Labour was going to win this election by a landslide.
I’ve thought for some time that this assumption could be gravely mistaken. The old adage, “it’s not over until the fat lady sings” is just as applicable to politics as any other part of our lives.
I remember the run-up to the 1997 election well, after which I was extremely fortunate to become a member of Tony Blair’s Cabinet for the subsequent eight years.
To win the general election then, Labour needed to overturn majorities
of between 4,000 and 6,000 votes to oust the Conservatives.
Now, in 2024, we’re talking about overturning majorities of up to 16,000 to win a bare majority.
In 1997 Labour had 272 seats – today, that figure is 205.
Back then, Scottish Nationalists had just a handful of seats.
And while they are currently in disarray, no one believes they will be wiped out on July 4.
In other words, the 10 per cent swing achieved in 1997 resulted in Labour winning a landslide majority of 179. That swing this time might just achieve a bare majority for Sir Keir Starmer.
I’m not saying there is some wonderful revival on the horizon for Sunak and the Conservatives.
One of the reasons, I suspect, that he called the election for July rather than the autumn is precisely because his party is so deeply divided. Any more infighting over the summer and even the most ardent Conservative voter was likely to give up in despair.
While it’s clear much of the population have had enough after 14 years, five prime ministers and numerous changes in crucial departments such as Justice and Housing, an overall majority for Labour still looks like a mountain to climb.
Former Labour PM Harold Wilson once said that a week is a long time in politics. Much could
happen over the six weeks of a general election campaign, but the biggest danger for all of us is quite simply apathy.
Many interviews with voters on radio and TV leave me feeling depressed, with remarks such as “they’re all the same”, “nothing will change” and “I’m not going to bother to vote”.
Many people have had enough after 14 years...but an overall majority for Labour still looks like a mountain to climb
THOSE who don’t vote hand power to those who do. It is no coincidence that in these first 10 days, the Conservative leadership have played as hard as they can to older voters. Not just because, until recently, they could rely on those in retirement to vote Conservative, but because, quite frankly, this is the group who actually do vote.
While some pronouncements have clearly been ill thought through contradictory nonsense, Keir Starmer and the Labour leadership know that many people, when they cast their vote, revert to thinking what’s immediately best for themselves.
Hopefully, in the weeks ahead, people will genuinely engage with what the future will look like for our children and grandchildren.
The stability and certainty we long for, and restoring Britain’s reputation on the global stage.
That is surely something all of us should care about.