Warning over cheese prices as wet winter hits milk yield
THE price of cheese and butter could rocket in the coming months after the wet winter and spring hurt milk yields, experts have warned.
Global commodity prices for dairy products have begun “to nudge upwards” and ballooning costs may have to be passed on to consumers.
But farming leaders have stressed there is little risk of empty shelves.
Milk normally reaches peak production around now, but a washout start to 2024 limited yields, which are down two per cent year-on-year.
Waterlogged fields have forced farmers to delay turning cows out to pasture. The problem also slowed down growth of pasture grass and hampered attempts to fertilise or control weeds.
Insiders say the slow start could mean “the season never has a chance to catch up”.
Cheesemakers are feeling “nervous”, according to experts. Lead dairy analyst Susie Stannard warned the “lack of availability of milk throughout Europe could be a key theme”, as other markets, such as Ireland, faced similar problems.
Hard-pressed farmers may also hold back milk production by not providing feed and supplements until milk prices rise.
Ms Stannard said that in the past month, butter rose by £170 a ton or 3 per cent and mild cheddar went up by £70 a ton or 2 per cent.
She added: “This could eventually result in prices increasing in shops if the trend continues. However, increases in commodity values do not always flow through quickly to retail prices.
“Cheese being sold now could have been made a year ago due to maturation times and products such as milk are often held artificially low in price by supermarkets, who seek to seem more competitively priced than other supermarkets.
“Demand is another factor that will influence prices. High prices caused consumers to be cautious with spending, which has held back demand for most products over the past two years.”
Paul Tomkins, chair of the National
Farmers’ Union dairy board, emphasised to customers there is “no expectation we will see a serious decline in milk” availability.
The farmer, who has a 400-head herd in the Vale of York, said: “I don’t think we should take for granted the food supply or milk supply.
“We operate on thin margins, it’s always a challenge.”
Mr Tomkins conceded projections for milk production are “pretty flat”.
He added: “I don’t think the shelves will see a difference, what will happen is that milk perhaps destined to go into cheeses or alternative markets will be kept back to liquid milk.
“The dairy sector will always find a way to keep shelves full.”