PREPARE FOR THE DIRTIEST CAMPAIGN EVER FOUGHT
Candidates will throw every punch
This year’s race to the White House is set to be the dirtiest and ugliest campaign in US political history.
Experts have warned of a “battle royal” and a “scorched earth” approach as Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton spend the next three- and- a- half months slugging it out to be president.
Democracy could be the biggest loser if voters turned off by the bile and vitriol decide to stay home on election day, November 8.
Trump has taken delight in referring to his opponent as “Crooked Hillary” and at the Republican national convention in Cleveland last week his baying supporters called for her to be jailed.
One delegate, Al Baldasaro, even said she should be executed by firing squad for treason.
Previously, Trump’s team published an Instagram video featuring the voices of two women accusing ex-president Bill Clinton of sexual assault and asking if his wife was real ly protecting women.
Hillary, meanwhile, has described Trump as “temperamentally unfit to hold an office” and “not someone who should ever have the nuclear codes”.
And her campaign team took to Facebook to read out each of the 5500 lawsuits Trump has launched or defended.
With polls putting Clinton ahead by just 2.7 per cent, both sides will go into full attack mode after this week’s Democratic convention in Philadelphia.
Pollster Jonathan Zogby said: “Tragedies such as Orlando, Dallas and Nice have forced Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton to talk about issues more recently but once the conventions are over it will become a battle royal.
“This may go down as one of the nastiest elections in recent memory.
“Trump will not f ilter his thoughts and will hurl insults at Clinton that will be offensive.
“Clinton will also be forced to get nasty and say some pretty outlandish and mean things. The Clintons do have a history of negative campaigning.
“This is going to be a long and ugly summer and uglier fall. “The v itr iol that wi l l be communicated by both sides wi l l turn off some voters, which could affect the turnout of many important groups, such as young voters and independents.”
Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Centre for Politics, warned of a “scorched earth” campaign.
He said: “Both Trump and Clinton have sky-high unfavourability ratings. They have little choice other than to attack.
“Their broadsides wi l l be believed because voters already have serious doubts about both.
“Scorched earth is an appropriate term. I can’t say for sure this campaign will be the absolute dirtiest but it will certainly be one of the three or four dirtiest.”
Pulitzer- winning journalist Michael D’Antonio, author of The Truth About Trump, said: “Donald is a very combative, aggressive person who is often motivated by anger and resentment.
“If he identifies a goal and someone challenges him, he becomes enraged and takes it personally. So I do expect the election campaign to be vicious.
“Donald is devoted to publicityseeking through extreme acts. He will go around trying to make headlines by saying and doing outrageous things.
“I would expect there to be fabricated evidence of wrongdoing by Hillary.
“It is a real puzzle for someone in her position. She is confronted with a bully who is willing to go further than anyone else.
“It might be a losing proposition to seek to match him blow for blow.”
Trump is devoted to seeking publicity through extreme acts. He will say and do shocking things
The Democratic National Convention will begin in Philadelphia tomorrow afternoon.
The 4764 delegates from across America will meet in what’s called the City of Brotherly Love to endorse Hillary Clinton as the Democratic candidate to be president of the US.
And that will probably be the last mention of “love” in this brutal presidential race – brotherly or otherwise.
Hillary’s nomination marks another extraordinary milestone in an extraordinary life.
A student activist. A lawyer. A mother. First Lady. New York senator. US secretary of state.
That is why her old adversary for the Democratic nomination Barack Obama backed her candidacy, saying that “there has never been a man or woman more qualified” to be President.
My colleagues at Harvard’s John F Kennedy School of Government admire how Hillary rebuilt America’s standing abroad as secretary of state after the George W Bush years.
In New York, you’ll meet former constituents who’ll tell you of her diligence as their senator.
I know Hillary Clinton and can personally attest to her calm, considered and careful approach to diplomacy – and her sheer hard work. She’s a class act.
If credentials and qualifications alone were enough, her victory in November would be assured.
But 2016 is the year that has seen Donald Trump win the Republican nomination and Britain vote to leave the EU. In today’s politics, conventional wisdom has been made to look stupid.
That’s why the question that will hang over the convention centre this coming week is not “Is Hillary qualified?” but “Will Hillary win?”
Trump’s divisive campaign denigrating Mexicans, Muslims and many others means millions in America and around the world will be willing Hillary on. But with millions of other Americans, his message is resonating.
Even af ter the shambol ic Republican convention, the polls remain close – and volatile.
In recent weeks, Hillary has maintained a lead of around four points in the national polls. However, some individual state polls suggest Trump is edging ahead.
And after the 2015 British general election and last month’s referendum, who would trust opinion polls anyway?
US politics is being shaped by three distinct but related forces.
First, economic anger. Forget the better economic numbers of recent months, many Americans remember losing their jobs or seeing wages stagnate and living standards fall over recent decades.
That decline cuts at the very heart of the American dream – the idea that if you work hard and play by the rules, you can get ahead.
Second, cultural anxiety. The threat of terrorism and further assaults on the West has been amplified by recent attacks.
Racial tension in the States is rising. The killing of five Dallas police at a Black Lives Matter protest has left many Americans feeling deeply troubled by divisions opening across their society.
Third, political anger. For many years, US candidates for office have run “against Washington”.
The impact of the financial crisis and legislative gridlock in Congress means contempt for politics and politicians has never been deeper.
So Hi l lary needs to use her speech on Thursday to convince the people that her plan is for Main Street, not Wall Street.
She needs to contrast Trump’s message of division and fear with a positive message of unity and hope the campaign slogan “Stronger Together” can be made real. Then there is Hillary’s biggest challenge – escaping being seen as a political insider in an era of the political outsider. She can’t deny she’s been at the centre of pol itical power for decades.decad But she can make clearcl this week that, at root,ro her campaign is aboutab meeting the needs of the American people. She’sS up against the ultultimate “I” candidate. DoDonald Trump’s speeches are littered with “I’ll do thisthis” and “I’ll do that”. This weeweek , Hillary needs to ensensure her campaign is abouabout “we”, not “I”. ThThe US is now on the threthreshold of electing its first female President. The glasglass ceiling on women’s advaadvancement is thankfully now ddeeply cracked. ThiThis week, Hillary needs to add a few more if she is to make the ultultimate breakthrough. Douglas Alexander is a senior fellow at Harvard University and former shadow foreign secretary.