May’s blocking an indy vote but there is one way the SNP could still get their referendum. And that’s to get people to just ask for one
In 2007, while I was professor of public policy in Aberdeen, I was called to a meeting in London with three senior SNP politicians.
There were only two weeks to go of the Holyrood election campaign.
The then First Minister Jack McConnell was on the ropes, as he had to defend the Iraq war. Not surprisingly, the SNP were heading for victory.
But they had a problem – hence the invitation to “a wee dram”, as the diary secretary had put it.
I met Alex Salmond, Angus Robertson and Pete Wishart in the coffee shop in Portcullis House. They wanted to know what their options were for calling a referendum. They were not too optimistic. They knew they were likely to become the largest party in the Scottish Parliament but they would not have a majority. Worse still, then soon-to-become prime minister Gordon Brown had ruled out a referendum.
It was an informal chat rather than strict policy advice – so I don’t think I am indiscreet for sharing my memories with readers of the Sunday Mail.
“What if they don’t allow us to hold a referendum?” asked Angus. “I mean, we can’t have a referendum on having a referendum, can we?”
“Well, you actually could,” I responded, perhaps a little too eagerly. “In Uruguay, the government held a referendum on whether to have a referendum on privatisation in 1992. But that is unusual.”
I cannot remember how they reacted to the slightly outlandish precedent from the small South American country. But I remember distinctly that they started to listen intently when I told them about so-called citizen-initiated referendums. That is, referendums called after a specified number of voters have demanded a vote on an issue.
At that time, the Parti Québécois – the SNP’s opposite number in the Canadian province of Quebec – were espousing a law that would allow 15 per cent of the voters to demand a referendum on any law – including on whether to call a referendum on independence. A similar law had been passed in Alaska.
But it was not only in the Americas that such provisions existed – and exist. In Hungary, Latvia, Slovakia, Slovenia, the Netherlands, New Zealand and Switzerland, the voters can demand a referendum is held if a specified percentage of the voters – typically 10 per cent – want this.
The advantage of such a provision is that it sends a strong signal that a referendum is demanded by the people – not just a self-serving and selfish demand by a politician.
To ensure that laws are not passed by a small minority, there is typically a stipulation that turnout must be above 50 per cent for the vote to be valid.
In 2007, the SNP leadership opted to wait. They did not have a stable majority in the Scottish Parliament, let alone a majority that would have supported the introduction of a citizen-initiated referendum. This changed after 2011 when the SNP won an outright majority at Holyrood. In their first term, there was no need for institutional innovation to win approval for an indy referendum.
But under Theresa May, things are different. As she won’t consent to holding a referendum, Nicola Sturgeon needs to look at alternatives. An obvious choice is the citizen-initiated referendum.
And this time the SNP and the Greens have the votes in Holyrood to make it a reality. Further, if Labour, the Tories and the Lib Dems vote against the bill, they will appear undemocratic.
May is trying to block a referendum claiming that it is not a popular demand in Scotland – notwithstanding that the SNP won the election on a manifesto commitment to hold such a vote.
Under these circumstances, the citizen referendum may be the SNP’s saviour. If Holyrood enact a law that allows the people to gather signatures demanding a referendum on independence (and other issues), this will further strengthen the SNP’s mandate to hold a vote.
Such a referendum can be advisory only. But whatever the legal construction, the main benefit of such a provision is that it truly becomes the Scottish people who call the shots.
The introduction of the citizens’ initiative would make Scotland more democratic. It will provide a mechanism for holding a second independence referendum – or not, as the case may be. It could show if popular demand is or isn’t behind the SNP administration.
One thing is clear after Brexit (and at a time when trust in politicians is decreasing): The will of the people is supreme. It is recognised that, in the last resort, objections against referendums are objections against democracy.