Sunday Mail (UK)

Modern stats not tall order

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The terms ‘expected goals’ and ‘ expected assists’, have quickly gained a place in the modern football dictionary.

The terms, shortened to xG and xA, were used by Hamilton boss Martin Canning recently and Arsene Wenger is also a fan.

But despite the efforts of such high-profile bosses, not everyone in football has appreciate­d the new stats.

Scottish football analyst Dougie Wright is all for it. He got involved in analysis when the BBC and Sky put our game on the back burner to focus on English football.

Expected goals stats, which rate the likelihood of a player scoring from a certain position, have confused plenty of fans.

But Wright reckons it’s a simple thing to get your head around and that we’ve all talked about xG – just never knowingly.

Wright said: “It sounds all horrible and scary but ultimately it’s a common sense approach.

“It’s basically just what you would say down the pub, you’re just putting some figures on it.

“After we start doing that we can track and see which players have been unlucky, who’s riding their luck.

“Stuart Armstrong is a great example: he is a fantastic long-range shooter and when his xG value isn’t that big, you know not many people can do what he can.

“It’s a big can of worms but people need to remember it is just a common sense approach.”

So who are the winners and losers in the xG stakes? Wright reckons a certain Colombian at Rangers will be back to his best soon.

And there are some other Premiershi­p hitmen he’s tipping to shine.

He said: “Alfredo Morelos at Rangers is scoring at a sustainabl­e rate and despite not doing too well right now he should bounce back.

“The most valuable creator is Chris Cadden, who you’d expect to chalk up around 20 assists.

“There’s also Hibs’ Simon Murray and St Johnstone’s Steven MacLean, who should finish the season with around 20 goals each.”

Our game has been given the cold shoulder by broadcaste­rs and Wright said :“Because it’ s Scotland, you don’t get as many people pouring over it as you do down south.”

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