2000 deaths in Scotland would be considered a good outcome but it could be much worse. People need to take the advice they are being given very seriously
Medical chief warns public social distancing is matter of life and death
Scottish Government expert Jason Leitch has warned tens of thousands of Scots will be killed by coronavirus if social distancing advice is ignored.
The national clinical director has been catapulted into the public eye as one of Nicola Sturgeon’s most senior health advisers and praised for his calm guidance through the Covid-19 crisis.
But in an interview with the Sunday Mail, Professor Leitch gave a chilling insight into the horror the country faces in coming months, admitting 2000 deaths could be a “good outcome” with the “worst case scenario much worse”.
His claims came as new Scottish Government figures revealed another patient has died in Scotland after testing positive for Covid-19, bringing the total number of deaths to seven.
The number of positive results is now 373, an increase of 51 on Friday.
Figures also reveal 8259 tests have been carried out north of the Border.
Britain’s coronavirus death toll yesterday rose to 233. The 56 new fatalities was the biggest 24-hour leap yet. A 41-year-old became the nation’s youngest victim yet.
The number of positive cases have soared to 5018 an increase of 1035 from Friday.
The UK Government’s chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance last week claimed 20,000 deaths in the UK would be a “good outcome”.
Prof Leitch said: “We really aren’t messing around with this now. To protect individuals and society’s vulnerable, we need to make very drastic social distancing and isolation choices.
“The chief scientif ic adviser in England has said he thinks 20,000 deaths across the UK would be a good outcome.
“In Scotland, that would be about 2000 but the worst case scenario is much worse than that.
“People need to take the advice they’re being given very seriously.
“They also need to help their neighbours and stop stockpiling.
They need to be a community.
“It’s the difference between tens of thousands of deaths and the number of around 2000. We’ve told the symptomatic and very vulnerable to stay at home.Then we told some other groups – those with diseases, those over 70 and those who are pregnant – to take very seriously the calls to reduce social contact. “For everyone else, they must socially distance themselves as much as possible – that means no pubs, no clubs no birthday parties, no Mothers Day family dinners. It’s a horrible thing and none of us have done it lightly but it’s to protect the people that will get this virus because it’s a proper disease.”
It was a sentiment echoed by Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who said yesterday: “I know everyone’s strongest instinct is to go and see their mothers in person to show themhowmuchyoulovethem. But I am afraid that this Mothering Sunday, the single best
present we can give – we who owe our mothers so much – is to spare them the risk of catching a very dangerous disease. The sad news is that means staying away.”
Meanwhile, Leitch also warned there was still a risk of Covid-19 infection from takeaway packaging.
Food deliveries have been booming as people order in from their favourite restaurants rather than eating out.
But the Scottish Government expert warned consumers to take precautions when over handling items.
He said: “My advice is, when it’s delivered, dish the food without using your hands, throw the wrapping away then wash your hands before eating it.”
Married Leitch, 51, admitted handling coronavirus has been the “biggest challenge of his career”. In his role as clinical director, he has been charged with communicating life or death advice throughout the biggest health crisis the country has faced in modern times.
The desperate attempt to stop the virus ripping through the population will not stop hundreds of lives being lost.But it i s ho p e d t ou g h measures will slow its progress so the NHS can cope.
Leitch added: “The numbers from the World Health Organisation suggest 80 per cent of the population will be affected by coronavirus at some point in the worst case scenario.
“Around 50 per cent wi l l get symptoms, so some people get it and
It’s a horrible thing. We haven’t done it lightly but it’s to protect those that will get this virus
feel nothing at all. About 10 per cent will need some form of health care, for a proportion it wi l l be signi f icant including intensive care and ventilation.
“The mortality rates around the world vary but a mortality level of around one per cent seems to be about right.
“So everything we’re doing is about making that curve of viral cases last a long time rather than having everyone coming in at once with the virus. The NHS wouldn’t be able to manage and the very sick couldn’t get the care they need.”
Prof Leitch trained and practiced as a dentist in Glasgow before bbecoming an oral surgeon.
He went on to study public hhealth at Harvard University in the US before working for the Scottish Government.
The expert, whose wife Lynn is a schoolteachers in Lanarkshire, was praisedpraise earlier this month for how he handlhandled Piers Morgan on Good Morning Britain.B
Responding to the host’s criticism, he replied: “I’m not sure where you got your masters in public health from Piers.”
Prof Leitch added: “I’m just a boy from Airdrie Academy, I don’t know how I ended up here.
“I went to Glasgow University and studied dentistry and practiced in Wishaw for a year but soon decided being in one room all day wasn’t what I wanted to do for the rest of my career. “Harvard was an incredible experience. That’s what I trumped Piers Morgan with.
“I also worked for the Institute for Health Care Improvement.
“I had the public health training and then they taught me how health care systems worked. I got a part-time job with the Scottish Government and 10 years later, I’m the national clinical director and one of the three senior clinicians advising the Government.
“Together, we try to give the best possible clinical advice we can.”
Prof Leitch revealed his team was working with Chinese officials in Wuhan, where coronavirus is believed to have spread from.
He said: “Some of my guys are on calls with senior leaders in Wuhan. We’re in contact with the Chinese, who are at a different stage, and learning from them.”
Whi le he admitted that severe disruption would last for months, the medic insisted: “Li fe wi l l go on eventually, we’ll get through this. But it’s going to take months, not weeks.
“The measures we need to take will not always be the same but if you’re home working, you can certainly expect to be doing that over the summer.
“I don’t think anyone is under any illusion that this the biggest thing we’ve ever faced. It’s certainly the biggest thing the NHS has ever faced and the response we’re having to ask for has massive implications for everyone.”