THREE YEARS OF MISERY
Scientist tells public to get used to changes
A scientist who led a study on how Covid-19 spreads between households has warned the killer bug will impact on our lives for another three years.
Professor Hendrik Streeck has said spikes such as those seen in Scotland in recent weeks are inevitable for the foreseeable future – and said the public should get used to it.
The leading German virologist has said hopes of a vaccine are not guaranteed and people must prepare to alter their everyday life – claiming he believes we’ll still be battling the virus in 2023.
A ban on visit ing other households was reintroduced in Glasgow, East Renfrewshire and West Dunbartonshire this week, following an increase in cases linked to indoor gatherings at residential properties.
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon issued a plea not to f lout coronavirus restrictions and warned of a more severe clampdown, with concerns that schools could be forced to close to stamp out infections.
Streeck helped lead the response to the pandemic in Heinsberg, one of thee worsthit districts of Germany.
He and his team used the town of Gangelt to study the virus to learn how it spreads and how it can be contained.
And the expert, the director of the Institute of Virology and HIV Research at Bonn University, said cracking down on house parties will slow down infections.
It emerged last week that police raided a 12-bedroom property in Midlothianan after it was being used to host a party with 300 guests.
Streeck said: “This virus is not disappearing. It has now become part of our daily lives.
“It will still be here in three years and we have to find a way to live with it.
“However, it is really important to stop super-spread-spread
inging events where many people gather together as those can cause large outbreaks. We know that social distancing, not gathering in big groups and covering your face can have a profound impact on the infection.
“These are simple measures that can help stop the spread if you have large levels of infection.”
Streeck’sS study, which was publishedpub in April, did swab and antibody testing on 919 people selected randomly from 405 households in Gangelt, close to Germany’s border with the Netherlands.
His team found that the Covid-19 fatality rate was much lower than first thought, at 0.37 per cent.
It also revealed that 10 times more people than previously thought may have acquired immunity. He said: “It was an oppor tunit y to look at transmissions and at the same time to understand how likely it is to spread amongst that population.
“Most infections occur in large gatherings and at home.
“We had 4 4 per cent of par ticipants at a carnival
celebration that had become infected with coronavirus. So almost half of them attended that night.
“We found that 15 per cent of the overall population of that town were infected and had coronavirus already.
“It is difficult to say if people are immune but we found immunity. It is very likely individuals are immune after coronavirus but we cannot say for certain.”
Germany has suf fered 9401 deaths linked to coronavirus.
The country is considered to have managed the coronavirus crisis better than the rest of Europe with rigorous testing helping keep infection and deaths rates low.
But new cases have risen in recent weeks. Depsite the increase, its government has ruled out a winter lockdown.
There is no vaccine against Covid-19 but clinical trials are under way around the world.
Streeck said it is “probable” a vaccine will be discovered but said there are doubts over how quickly it can be made and its efficacy.
He also said people developing herd immunity to combat the virus sounded “terrible” but was vital in slowing down infection rates.
He said: “A vaccine may be the answer but we don’t know. It’s probable that we will have a vaccine but it may be next year or longer.”
The exper t added: “Herd immunity is a terrible way to describe it as it sounds like you’re forcing people together to get infected.
“But it is also something that really helps to slow down infections.”
A Scot t ish Government spokesman said:“After driving coronavirus in Scotland to as low a level as possible, we knew as we moved out of lockdown that there would be more opportunities for the virus to spread and, as has happened in other countries, we may see cases begin to rise.
“We must do everything we can to stop it spreading in the f irst place from person to person and household to household.”