Sunday Mail (UK)

GIRL POWER

Risks of Brexit and coronaviru­s are driving more cautious voters to favour exiting UK

- John Ferguson Political Editor

Women are driving increased support for Scottish independen­ce because they now view it as the least risky option, it has been claimed.

In the run- up to the 2014 referendum, males were far more likely to vote to break from the UK than females.

But recent polls suggest that trend has now been eliminated, with overall support as high as 55 per cent, according to a Panelbase survey in August.

Heinz Brandenbur­g, a senior professor of pol it ics at Strathclyd­e University, believes a fundamenta­l shift in the gender divide is being dr iven by the perceived risk created by a chaotic Brexit and coronaviru­s.

He said: “At the time of thehe 2014 referendum, there were studies that showed people cautious in their general attitudes to life were less likely to vote yes and people more comfortabl­e with riskk were more likely to votee yes.

“That makes sensee because independen­ce iss a plunge into the dark too some extent.

“There is also a lot of psychologi­cal research thatat would suggest men arere more risk prone – if you haveve two policy options and onene has much more risk, you can be sure it will be the one preferred by men and vice versa. During the referendum, and certainly for four years afterwards, there was a big gender gap of up to 10 per cent between male and female support for indindepen­dence. But something has haphappene­d now – if you loolook at almost every polpoll since 2020, support for independen­ce now cocomes as strongly from wowomen and men. “That change is sosomethin­g that is exextremel­y rare. One exexample would be in AAmerica where you had women in the 50s and 60 s be in and 60 s being more conservati­ve and more likely to vote for Republican­s.

“But, over the last 20 years, that has shifted and women are now more likely to support Democrats.

“But that took decades. Here, we are seeing something that has happened in the space of a year, where the gender gap seems to have flipped.”

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon told MSPs earlier this month that a draft Bill will be drawn up setting out the timing, terms and question for a new referendum.

Polls suggest support has now been the majority view for much of 2020.

Brandenbur­g added: “With coronaviru­s, you have seen a strong female leader who has appeared to show more empathy and competence, and that has perhaps had an impact.

“But part of it must be that Brexit has created such a lot of uncertaint­y, and the fact that we increasing­ly don’t know what it is going to look like has meant that the risk of independen­ce is weighed against complete uncertaint­y.

“It used to be that voting for independen­ce was weighed against something that seemed stable and consistent but that is no longer the case.

“It seems likely that this has been a factor in the increased support among women.”

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 ??  ?? GAP Heinz Brandenbur­g
GAP Heinz Brandenbur­g
 ??  ?? ON THE MARCH Women are as likely to favour independen­ce as men Pic Getty
ON THE MARCH Women are as likely to favour independen­ce as men Pic Getty

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