It isn’t coming home!

SORRY TO DELIVER THE BAD NEWS... BUT WE’RE VULNERABLE AT THE BACK AND HAVE LOOKED WAY OFF THE PACE IN WARM-UP GAMES

I’M going to make a big call on England this weekend: if they don’t win their opening match, they DON’T finish in the top two in their group.

I think it’s massive they get off to a flying start, in terms of confidence and belief, and if they don’t, then I can see disaster looming, as it did against Iceland five years ago.

Look, I’m not saying they will crash out.

There’s a chance that third will get them into the knockout stages for a start and, in reality, they should beat Croatia.

But they’re difficult to break down, they can slug it out and you don’t want to give them an advantage in the group because I think danger lurks elsewhere for England.

Scotland will be a difficult team to beat.

Steve Clarke has created a unified outfit tough to break down and hard to overcome.

Going into the ‘Battle of Britain’ on the back of a defeat to Croatia, or a draw, would be a problem.

It would give Scotland incentive and motivation and would also put that seed of doubt and fear in the minds of Gareth Southgate’s players.

In the warm-up games England have looked far too pedestrian.

And a defeat in their opening game would create more pressure and inhibition. I’m not really feeling it for Southgate’s team this year.

It’s clear that Harry Maguire won’t be fit until at least the knockout stages and Jordan Henderson hasn’t played any proper football in a long time. Without those two, they lack experience and leadership.

That means a dilemma for the manager: does he go with four or three at the back?

My instinct is to stick with four. Now is not the time to start experimenting.

I know it worked well in the World Cup, but, apart from a few minutes against Romania, the current group haven’t played three at the back for a while.

England need some inspiration, so I’m going for Jack Grealish ahead of

Jadon Sancho and Raheem Sterling.

With Jack alongside

Phil Foden, operating behind Harry Kane, that is an exciting trio.

Add Mason Mount as a third player behind Kane and you get guile and an eye for goal around the box.

He’s got that sublime quality on the ball and just looks a proper footballer.

He can also drop into the middle of the park if England get overrun. And, with Sancho, Sterling and Marcus Rashford all to come off the bench, there is massive threat.

But the lack of experience in midfield and the problems at the back make them vulnerable.

And I can’t see England getting beyond the quarters unless the draw is kind to them.