Five ways the war could end
A QUICK AND DECISIVE
VICTORY FOR PUTIN: This was what Putin expected but I believe it is impossible now. The plan was to change the government and get control over the two breakaway republics, Donetsk and Luhansk. He also wanted to force Ukraine to recognise Crimea and to demonstrate that no matter how strong the US or NATO is, when it comes to Russia’s borders, he is the master of the house.
Plan A was to have a short and victorious war but he has not been able to realise plan A and perhaps not even his plan B, which was to take Kyiv and would have been a symbolic victory. Now, he is getting dragged into a long war that is not winnable. The problem is that at each stage he fails, Putin is increasing pressure and the war is becoming more bloody and the number of civilian casualties is rising.
A PROTRACTED WAR WITH ENDLESS CASUALTIES:
This is the most likely outcome right now. During the Chechen war the siege of Grozny took more than a month and the city was destroyed, let’s hope that does not happen to Kyiv. But there is no precedent for trying to capture a city of three million people. Kyiv is well defended and it will take a lot of effort to capture it and at huge cost.
The problem is Putin has almost nothing to lose. All the sanctions that can be used against him are in place and he’s not motivated to stop a brutal war, he’s motivated to get a ceasefire on his terms.
THE INVASION ESCALATES
INTO WORLD WAR III: Putin is definitely ready to attack other countries if the West intervenes. He’s previously said that any attempt to use Western planes in Ukrainian airspace will lead to him declaring war against that country. I don’t think he has enough resources to invade Ukraine right now, let alone expand the war. That said, the risk of Putin using nukes is serious, especially if he is cornered. If he can’t win using conventional weapons he could switch to tactical nuclear weapons. I don’t think he would use them on a major city like Kyiv. More likely he would use them somewhere rural to demonstrate his power without taking too many lives. I don’t believe he wants to start a world war.
PUTIN IS OVERTHROWN AS RUSSIANS REACT AGAINST HIS LEADERSHIP:
I do not think there is any real personal threat that Putin is fazed by. He controls public information so Russians believe this is all due to the West conspiring against their country. Saying he is mad is an easy way to explain what has happened but that’s not to say it is right. He is still in touch with the elite in Russia and his interactions with them suggests he is sound of mind.
PEACE TALKS: I’m afraid talks will only become realistic after something horrible has happened. Public opinion in
Ukraine is strongly against any concessions. I feel certain it is impossible for Putin to win, but it is possible he will be able to claim a trophy that will justify what he has done.
I think at best Putin will get what he demanded. This means control over Ukraine’s foreign policy decisions and parts of Ukraine close to the Russian borders. He is also demanding demilitarisation of Ukraine. I think his military might is big enough he can blackmail the world. What we are seeing can be described as hostage taking. Ukraine has been taken by a state terrorist.
He cannot tolerate a longlasting war as his position will weaken and the Ukrainians will strengthen and that will be felt, not only by the economy but also by the population, so I think he will do something decisive next month.