A tense-point lead

Labour may still be ahead in polls but Tories are starting to look stronger

There are some nervous people over at Labour at the moment. Actually, come to think of it, maybe nervous is the wrong word. Tense. That’s more like it. Tense.

I was having a drink with one of them this week and the mood has definitely changed over the last couple of months.

“Everything is fine,” they told me, “Totally fine.” But it was done with that sort of strained smile.

There are multiple causes. A 10-point lead in the polls the other day was dismissed as a quirk.

Many other pollsters have the lead narrowing. It’s still healthy, mind you.

And the performance of PM Rishi Sunak – whose personal ratings are not great but improving – is a bit of a headache as well.

“The problem,” said my friend, “is that they are getting better on the economy. The Budget landed OK and it’s difficult to frame them as incompetent or a group of chancers any more. They have put some distance between Boris and Truss, and look serious.

“The real worry is that if we can’t fight on issues, then we have to fight on personality.

“It would have worked against Boris. Safe pair of hands versus a maniac. But these two are both serious. And that is a problem.

It’s basically two management consultants fighting it out, but one – Sunak – has got a bit of charisma and people tend to like him. Our guy doesn’t have that, no matter how hard he tries.”

Still, there’s no need to start panicking just yet.

There was a great stat the other day that cheered everyone up – 42% of Conservative voters would vote Tory again at the next election, compared with 73% for Labour.

But no one is 100% any more. Late 90%, maybe.

And there are a couple of Conservative MPs who have perked up a bit and have a little spring in their step.

My pal said: “I can’t remember who it was that said in the run-up to ’97 that Blair was like a man carrying a Ming vase across a slippery floor – but it’s feeling a bit like that again.” It was Roy Jenkins. And it does feel a bit like that. But there are reasons to be cheerful.

Scotland is looking good, the local elections should be OK and the Tories are always a week away from a fresh disaster. At the moment, Mr Johnson, for example.

There is policy from Labour in the next couple of weeks that should land well.

So there is no need to worry. Although I’ve said that before, in 2010, and look what happened. And again in 2015.

And in 1996, when I didn’t think Newcastle could possibly throw that lead away at the top of the Premier League table.

We should be OK and I’ll love it, love it if we beat them.

Fighting on personality would have worked with Boris Johnson