5 ways it could all end
THE world is on a knife-edge as it waits to discover the fate of Ukraine and whether Vladimir Putin’s invasion will escalate.
Here Nikolai Petrov, senior research fellow at London’s Chatham House, looks at how the war could end.
1
A QUICK AND DECISIVE VICTORY FOR PUTIN
The original plan was to change the government and get control over the two breakaway republics, Donetsk and Luhansk – but I do not think that is possible now. He is getting dragged into a longer war that is not winnable.
2
A LONG AND PROTRACTED WAR LEADS TO MANY CASUALTIES
The most likely outcome. During the Chechen war, the Siege of Grozny took more than a month and the city was totally destroyed, so let’s hope that does not happen to Kyiv. The problem is that Putin has almost nothing to lose. All the sanctions that can be used against him are already in place.
3
THE INVASION ESCALATES INTO WORLD WAR THREE
Putin is definitely ready to attack other countries if the West somehow intervenes – and the risk of him using nukes is serious, especially if he is cornered. I don’t think he would use them on a major city like Kyiv. It is more likely he would use them somewhere rural to show his power.
4
PUTIN IS OVERTHROWN BY HIS OWN PEOPLE
I do not think any personal threats faze Putin. He controls public information so Russians believe this is all due to the West conspiring against them. The Russian economy has been almost ruined by sanctions but the people blame the West, not Putin. Saying he is mad is an easy way to explain what has happened but that’s not to say it is right. He is still in touch with the elite and his interactions with them suggest he is of sound mind.
5
PEACE TALKS BETWEEN NATIONS END THE WAR
Sadly, peace talks will only become realistic after something horrible has happened. Public opinion in Ukraine is strongly against making any concessions and politicians will not go against public opinion. I feel certain it is impossible for Putin to win this war, but it is possible he will be able to claim a trophy to justify what he has done. At best, Putin will get what he wanted before the war started. I think he will do something decisive within the next month.