What next for group of independent MPS?
WESTMINSTER took a bit of a break from Brexit last week.
The big story was the creation of a new “group” of MPS, the Independent Group.
They are not actually a party, or at least not yet.
However, the decision of former Labour and Conservative MPS to form a new centre-ground faction in the House of Commons distracted attention from the Brexit debate.
It is possible that after the initial flurry of excitement, the media and public will lose interest and the group will drift into irrelevance. They face two problems. The first is the Independent Group is anti-brexit, backing a “people’s vote” or second referendum.
There is undoubtedly a market for that.
Yet it also limits their appeal. Even if you are someone disgusted by the state of the Labour and Conservative parties and thinks of yourself as fairly moderate when it comes to politics – the type of person the Independent Group hopes to represent – you might find it hard to support them if you back Brexit or simply think another referendum is a bad idea.
The second problem is Anna Soubry, the most well-known of the ex-conservatives to join the group, appears to be a fan of spending cuts imposed by former Chancellor George Osborne.
Perhaps there was a time when some voters believed cuts were needed - but the mood has now changed.
In the North East, spending cuts mean there are fewer police officers and local authorities are forced to cut vital services for children and the elderly. (Back row) Chris Leslie, Gavin Shuker, Chuka Umunna and Mike Gapes, (middle row, left to right) Angela Smith, Luciana Berger and Ann Coffey, (front row, left to right) Sarah Woollaston, Heidi Allen, Anna Soubry and Joan Ryan
Even Prime Minister Theresa May understands public opinion well enough to proclaim austerity is coming to an end.
Strictly speaking, Mrs Soubry said last week Mr Osborne did the right thing in years gone by, not that she wants more cuts now - but her comments will go down badly
with left-leaning voters who are not happy with Jeremy Corbyn but don’t want to vote for an austeritybacking Tory.
A lot will depend on how successful the Independent Group is in establishing its own identity, so they are seen as more than just exmembers of their old parties.
Even if they succeed in doing that, itis very hard in our political system for smaller parties to win seats.
The MPS who defected last week are not careerists. If they were, they would have kept their heads down and their mouths shut and kept their jobs.