May survives – but what about us?
Second referendum is looking like a possibility
THERESA May lives to fight another day after winning last week’s confidence vote.
But while it made for a dramatic day at Westminster, it did nothing to solve the dilemma facing the Prime Minister.
The problem for Mrs May is that we’re due to leave the EU on March 29 – that’s a little more than 100 days away – and she still doesn’t have a withdrawal agreement that the House of Commons is willing to accept.
EU leaders say they want to help her.
However, when Mrs May met European leaders last week, it was clear that they are unable or unwilling to do so.
The main bone of contention is the “backstop”, which is an arrangement to prevent a border being created between Northern Ireland and Ireland.
Many Conservative MPs are firmly opposed to this. They will never back a deal that includes it.
Labour also says the backstop.
And the DUP, the Northern Ireland party that supports Theresa May’s government, are implacably opposed.
But the EU won’t budge. says the backstop is essential. And that, pretty much, is that. Theresa May says she’ll present a new withdrawal deal to the Commons by January 21. it opposes It
Barring a miracle, she’ll have to admit she just hasn’t managed to get the EU to agree to changes that would make her proposals acceptable to MPs.
At that point, even some Tories who backed her in last week’s confidence vote will be calling for her to go (although under party rules, they can’t hold a confidence vote for another year).
More important than what happens to Theresa May is what happens to the country.
Would we leave the EU without a deal, even though it’s widely agreed this would cause significant damage to the economy?
Would we opt for a very “soft” Brexit – staying in the EU and the Customs Union – which the EU might agree to quickly?
Or does the Government try to go over the heads of Parliament and put the deal directly to the British people in a referendum?
Many Labour MPs say they want a second public vote. Remarkably, some Tories are now beginning to discuss the idea too.
A second referendum is looking increasingly like a real possibility.
And if it did happen, one option on the ballot paper would be to cancel Brexit entirely.
NORTH POLITICS WITH JON WALKER