‘There’s no solution to satisfy all’
There were no solutions the EFL could have proposed to satisfy all clubs.
If, as seems likely, the League One season is curtailed, the application of any ‘sporting merit’ solution was always going to prove hugely controversial.
As it is, the EFL have opted to pursue an ‘unweighted’ points-per-game formula.
This makes sense, to an extent, the logic being that it gives weight primarily to what has already happened, rather in attempting to predict what could happen in the future.
Yet it is also a simplistic approach that, in a fiercely contested promotion race (and indeed relegation battle), will throw up some dubious conclusions. So who are the key winners and losers?
Using statistics from soccerstats.com, we have assessed the run-in for each of the teams in the top eight, weighting the difficulty of their fixtures by calculating the home or away PPG average of the opponents left to face...
COVENTRY CITY Average PPG of opponents: 1.39
PPG taken from last
eight: 2.75 With ten games to go, Coventry faced one of the more hectic schedules, as well as one of the toughest fixture lists remaining.
Though it may not look overly daunting on paper, they were due to face a number of mid-to-lower table teams who have been very strong at home this season.
Their biggest advantage was that all their games against teams at the top would have been played on ‘home’ turf at St Andrews.
Their recent form has been exceptional, particularly in defence, and their lead at the top is imposing. ROTHERHAM UNITED Average PPG of opponents: 1.30
PPG taken from last eight: 1.88 Some disappointing results checked Rotherham’s progress before the postponement, but they look to have done just enough to win automatic promotion on PPG.
Given their slender lead over the chasing pack, that will be hugely contentious, particularly as they are due to play away at Fleetwood and Wycombe.
The obvious counter to that is that their away record this season is the best in the league. OXFORD UNITED Average PPG of opponents: 1.22
PPG taken from last
eight: 2.00 Oxford’s season looked to be fading away when Sunderland won 1-0 at the Kassam earlier this year.
Cup exertions and the sale of Tariqe Fosu and Shandon Baptiste looked to be taking its toll, but they rebounded impressively.
They have, theoretically, one of the easier run-ins. Unsurprisingly, then, they are keen to restart and play to a conclusion. PORTSMOUTH Average PPG of opponents: 1.27
PPG taken from last
eight: 1.63 That run of three tough away fixtures on the horizon would surely have made or broken Portsmouth’s campaign.
Fratton Park has proven to be one of the two most imposing venues in League One this season and their form there has been nothing short of exceptional.
Away from home has been considerably tougher going and their form heading into the long postponement across the board had dropped off the pace being set by their rivals. FLEETWOOD TOWN Average PPG of opponents: 1.21
PPG taken from last eight: 2.25 Fleetwood Town were on a remarkable run heading into the postponement and have, on paper at least, the best runin of any side in the top eight.
Joey Barton admits his owner has a difficult decision to make in terms of protecting a guaranteed play-off spot by voting for a PPG table, or taking the gamble of playing on.
With Rotherham still to play at home, Barton has some cause to believe they could chase the Millers down.
PETERBOROUGH UNITED
Average PPG of opponents: 1.24
PPG taken from last
eight: 2.38 Potential away trips to Coventry and Sunderland would have been key for Darren Ferguson’s side, who have five fixtures on home turf where they have been excellent this season.
It’s that record which would have seen them get into the play-offs on a weighted PPG system, and is likely to be the root of huge controversy to come if the EFL framework is approved. SUNDERLAND Average PPG of opponents: 1.25
PPG taken from last
eight: 1.75 With ten games to go, Sunderland had rightly been seen as one of the sides with a runin that could see them push towards the top two.
A disappointing defeat to Gillingham and an even more disappointing defeat at Bristol Rovers checked their progress significantly.
Their run-in remains relatively kind, but with just three home games left, they would be dependent on an improvement in their away form to trouble the teams at the top.
In truth, a four-game winless streak just before the postponement looks as if it will cost them.
WYCOMBE WANDERERS
Average PPG of opponents: 1.40
PPG taken from last
eight: 1.50 Gareth Ainsworth insists his side were in top-two contention but without a doubt, they had a lot of work to do.
They face the toughest run-in of the top eight, and their form is the weakest of those sides. One hope would be that their home form has remained outstanding, though they have just four home games remaining.