The reasons for the Black Cats’ woes in front of goal
team is in front of goal – and it certainly paints a clear picture when it comes to Sunderland.
Rotherham’s xG for the 2019/21 season was 61.81, meaning they scored just 0.81 goals less than they were estimated too. Coventry, meanwhile, had an xG of 40.91, meaning they scored seven goals more than expected.
Sunderland, in comparison, ended the season with an xG of 53.94 – scoring over five goals less than the data suggests they should have done.
There are undoubtedly many factors behind this, but what it does show is that the Black Cats spurned far more chances than their promotion rivals did.
It’s a simple statement, but logic dictates that the more times you get the ball into the box then the more likely you are to have a shot on goal.
One notable improvement under Parkinson was the number of balls Sunderland
got into the box – and indeed by the time the 2019/20 season drew to a close, they were averaging 18.17 crosses per game (a notable improvement).
It was a record far better than that of table-topping Coventry, who averaged 15.7 deliveries into the area per 90 minutes.
But getting the ball into the box is only one part of the equation, and it’s here where Sunderland fell down.
For only 29.5% of their deliveries actually met their intended target – a record bettered by both Coventry (30.6%) and Rotherham (33.9%).
It is also telling how few shots per game Sunderland had in comparison to their rivals.
The Black Cats averaged 10.57 shots per game, while Rotherham and Coventry were able to muster 11.92 and 11.26 respectively.
Now of course it’s not purely about the number of shots and crosses you have – after all, it only takes one successful shot to win a game 1-0.
But the fact of the matter is that Sunderland aren’t creating enough when compared to the leading teams in League One, making it more imperative that they bury the opportunities they do forge.
Right now, they aren’t doing that.
So what does all this mean moving forward for Sunderland?
Simply put, improvements need to be made. And that’s both tactically and in terms of personnel.
There were enough positive signs to suggest that Parkinson’s 3-4-3 system is the way forward, but tweaks will have to be made to ensure that Sunderland offer more of a threat in the final third. With a full pre-season to work on shape, you would hope that this is an area that will be addressed.
But what’s apparent is that the Black Cats need a goalscorer, someone they can hang their hat on.
Last season, Coventry and Rotherham had Matt Godden and Freddie Ladapo respectively, who both netted 14 times in the league.
And while Sunderland saw Lynden Gooch and Chris Maguire post strong goal returns, they still don’t have that talisman.
For all Charlie Wyke brings to the side, he doesn’t look like the 20-goal striker that Sunderland need. Nor does Will Grigg, who has failed to hit the desired heights since his big-money arrival.
That, therefore, leaves Sunderland looking in the transfer market for a reliable goalscorer, which will be a tricky task given the introduction of the salary cap.
But we can’t forget about the lack of chances Sunderland are creating, too. There are enough potential playmakers in the squad - and now Parkinson has to get them to perform on a consistent basis.
If they do, then the goals should follow.