Experts say virus fight is at ‘critical’ moment

Coronavirus infections are doubling every nine days and the second wave of the virus has reached a "critical stage", say scientists.

Researchers say they are seeing early signs that areas with previously low rates of infection are following trends observed in the country' s worst-affected regions and warned that, if more stringent action is to be implemented, it needs to be sooner rather than later as the current measures are "not sufficient".

The interim data from round six of the React study by experts at Imperial College London uses data and swab results from 86,000 people between October 16 and 25, and estimates there are about 96,000 new infections per day.

According to the study, the overall prevalence of infection in England was 128 people per 10,000 – up from 60 per 10,000 between September 18 and October 5.

It says Infections were doubling every nine days with a national reproduction number (R) estimated at 1.56, compared to 1.16 in the previous study.

Steven Riley, professor of infectious disease dynamics, Imperial College London, said: "O ur data show that there's absolutely no reason to expect this exponential rise to change to the next few weeks, regardless of what we do, because we're measuring infections occurring in the community."

He said it was not up to him to say what further measures may be introduced, but added: "If we are going to consider at some point over the winter that we may have to do something much more stringent, then it becomes a question of time. I think these results do argue for something sooner rather than later."