How busy are hospitals as the second wave rolls in?
The second wave is placing an ever greater toll on UK hospitals. There are more than 1,000 Covid admissions a day - 10 times the rate at the end of summer. hospitals have started cancelling routine treatments, as happened during the first peak, with hospitals in Leeds this week following others in announcing some treatments will have to stop. ut just how busy is the NHS? And how much Covid can it take?
Cases still well below the peak
Admissions are up, but still nowhere near the numbers seen in the spring. At one point, more than 3,000 patients a day were being admitted. Instead, we have seen a gradual rise - the numbers doubling every two weeks or so, compared with every four days at one stage of the first wave.
But consider what happens in more normal times. Winter typically sees more than 1,000 people a day admitted to hospital for respiratory problems. Yet, this time, what we do not know is how much other viruses - flu, in particular - will add to the workload. An encouraging sign from the southern hemisphere earlier this year was that the flu season was very mild.
But hospitals are probably far from full
What we can’t say - because up-to-date figures are not being published by NHS bosses - is exactly how full hospitals actually are. In recent years, hospitals tend to have had about 90% of beds occupied at any one time.
In the summer, when the last audit was done, this had dropped to below 70% - there were few Covid cases and levels of non-Covid work were still below normal. Even taking into account the rise in Covid admissions, it probably leaves hospitals with thousands more beds than normal at this time last year.
Fewer people coming to A&E
This, of course, is a difficult balancing act. And for some trusts - local healthcare groups - it is proving a step too far. In the past week alone hospital bosses in Nottingham, Birmingham and Bradford have announced some of the routine work they are doing will have to be cut back before the Leeds announcement on Tuesday.
Nottingham University Hospitals chief executive Tracy Taylor says she had to act after a “dramatic increase” in cases effectively meant she was losing an extra ward every day to new Covid admissions.