What previous L1 data is telling us about Cats’ promotion hopes
Sunderland’sdefeatatSheffield Wednesday saw them drop below the coveted two points per game total – but just how damaginghastheiralarmingslump beenfortheBlackCats’promotion chances?
Clearly the performances during 5-1 and 3-0 defeats at Rotherham and Sheffield Wednesday respectively have fallen well below the levels needed to claim a top-two position. But, while accepting his side have been ‘really poor,’ headcoachLeeJohnsoncalled for perspective and patience after the loss at Hillsborough, ashissidereachedthe15-game mark in League One.
Sunderland have 28 points and sit fifth in the table, with a game in hand on each of the sidesabovethem.Sohowdoes that compare to their previous campaigns in the third tier?
Last season, the Black Cats sacked Phil Parkinson after 13 league games when they had accumulated 23 points.
The team picked up another point in their next two league fixtures and were ninth after15matches,beforefinishing in the play-offs.
At the same stage, eventual champions Hull had 34 points and were top of the division, while Peterborough, who finished second, were fifth with 28 points having played an extra game. Sunderland also changedtheirmanagerduring thestartofthe2019/20season, as Jack Ross was dismissed following a 2-0 loss at Lincoln – when the side had 19 points after 11 league games.
Four league games later, when the club had appointed Parkinson, they had 25 points after 15 league matches and were seventh - in a season which was later curtailed due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Coventry and Rotherham were promoted automatically, though neither side made particularly fast starts.
The Sky Blues went up as championsbutwereonlysixth (26 points), having played a game more, when Sunderland hadreachedthe15-gamemark. Rotherhamwerefurtherdown thetablein10thwith24points.
Sunderland’s best start to a season since returning to the third tier came in 2018.
The Black Cats were third with 32 points after 15 games, but couldn’t maintain that fast rateastheyfinishedintheplayoffs. At the same stage, Luton, who were promoted as champions, were fifth on 28 points having played 16 matches.
Barnsley, who finished second, also had 28 points and were fourth after 15 fixtures.
So what do Sunderland’s previous seasons in the third tier tell us about this campaign’s promotion hopes?
Based on the aforementioned data, the Black Cats don’t appear to be in that bad of a position.
Obviously the points total doesn’t take into account their alarming drop in form, with the Wearsiders’ sitting 17th in the form table – taking into account sides’ last six results.
Sunderland have now averaged 1.87 points per game. If they maintained that for the remainder of the season, they would finish around the 86 point mark.
That would not have been enough to win automatic promotion in the last two completed League One seasons, althoughRotherhamhadaveragedlesspointspergamewhen theywerepromotedduringthe truncated 2019/20 campaign.
While stating the obvious, the Cats slump has to end fast, but Cats will have to wait another two weeks for their next league fixture though.