Premortems and backcasts
We all know what a postmortem is when it comes to analysing what went wrong in a particular situation. But Annie Duke suggests we try a ‘premortem’ before we commit to a course of action.
‘Identify the goal or specific decision you’re considering, and figure out a reasonable time period for achieving the goal or for the decision to play out,’ she says. ‘Now imagine it’s the day after that period of time and you didn’t achieve the goal, or the decision worked out poorly.
‘Looking back from that imagined point in the future, list up to five reasons why you failed due to your own decisions. Also list up to five reasons why you
Not sure whether to choose a particular item in a shop? Or have two options about what to do on Saturday night?
‘If your rational, conscious brain is torn between two choices, stymied and unable to decide, pick up a coin,’ suggests business coach, Kevin Eikenberry.
‘Ask yourself the critical question that your decision revolves around, assign the decision to the heads and tails of your coin, and then flip.’
The real test is how you feel. ‘If, after the flip, you seem pleased or relieved with the failed due to things outside your control.’
Annie adds you should also try a ‘backcast’ — like a forecast in reverse — where you go through the same process, this time imagining the decision worked out well.
‘Looking back from that imagined point in the future, list up to five reasons why you succeeded due to your own decisions and actions or those of your team,’ she says. ‘And then list up to five reasons why you succeeded due to things that were outside your control.’
This will empower you to make the best decision with an understanding of all the facts and variables. result, go for it,’ says Kevin.
‘But if, after the flip, you immediately think “maybe I should go best out of three” or you question the validity of a coin flip for such a decision, perhaps you should pick the other choice.’
Either way, the coin flip is a test of your gut feeling.
A coin could hold the key…