A good bet • Focus: 2021 elections

DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES FOR 2021, THERE ARE POSITIVE SIGNS THAT MINING WILL CONTINUE TO GARNER SUPPORT FROM THE NEXT ONE TO LEAD THE COUNTRY.

THE NEXT ELECTIONS ON FEBRUARY 28, 2021 are more than a year away, and a president will be sworn in on May 24. Support for traditional political forces is on the wane; more than half of potential electors surveyed declined to express support for any of the current candidates.

Under this scenario, there is room for a dark horse to emerge. However, there are none in sight. Looking at the current slate of potential candidates with a chance of winning the presidency, the government sworn in on May 2021 is likely to endorse mining more enthusiastically than the current administration.

The last two presidencies have been discouraging for mining in Ecuador, although as time went by and the presidents realized the importance of mining for the economy and public financing, they came around to lending their support to the industry. The election of Rafael Correa in 2007 was not good news for mining. He was elected president with the support of a coalition of leftist and activist organizations and proceeded to close down congress and impose autocratic rule. He called for a Constitutional Convention; in 2008, the delegates, in addition to drawing a constitution, issued a series of mandates, one of which ordered a halt of mining activities. This interruption of mining activities came to an end in mid-2014, after a fall in oil prices and subsequent loss of oil revenues. To reactivate the economy, Correa turned to mining, creating the Mining Ministry, promoted Vice Minister Javier Córdova to minister, and backed Córdova’s aggressive opening to foreign investment.

Correa’s anointed successor, Lenín Moreno, came out for industrial mining during his campaigning. Right before the elections, he said, “We have abundant natural resources that must be tapped intelligently. … It is the most realistic alternative to generate hard currency in the short and mid term. Large-scale mining is possible and is understood to be an industry regulated by well-managed mines in production by respectable, responsible, and professional companies that monitor all aspects of the activity.” Once elected president, however, under pressure from indigenous organizations, he first ordered Córdova—who remained as minister—to stop concessions, before dismissing him and demoting the ministry to Vice Ministry. Apparently, he felt the industry was developing too rapidly.

As time went by and the economy was unable to emerge from the doldrums induced by the end of the oil boom, Moreno came to appreciate investment in mining and has quietly moved to more active support. He has promised to open up to new concessions in 2020.

Mining will not be an issue in the next presidential campaign. There are three political forces likely to play a leading role: the same forces that starred in the 2017 presidential, as well as in the recent local, elections. One such group comprised supporters of Correa, who lost control of the Alianza País (AP) movement to President Moreno. Correa has been barred from running for a new term, though he could be a vice presidential candidate or head the national list for the national assembly. A Correa-backed candidate has an excellent chance of making it to the presidential run-off. In that event, a Correa-backed president’s mining policy is likely to pick up from where Correa left: full support for new investment.

The next candidate will be Creating Opportunities’ (CREO) founder, Guillermo Lasso. The runner up of the 2017 elections has already declared his candidacy for 2021. Lasso, a banker by trade, is a free marketeer and is expected to back mining, due to the economic growth brought on by investment and on account of the expectations of mining-generated revenues in the latter part of the period.

Finally, the final candidate will come from Social Christian Party (PSC), which came in third in the last general elections, with Cynthia Viteri as candidate. Viteri is now Mayor of Guayaquil. There is the strong possibility that PSC leader Jaime Nebot, who stepped down as Guayaquil mayor after a 19-year tenure, will run for president. Nebot’s mentor was León Febres Cordero, who during his presidency opened Ecuador up to foreign investment, and Nebot is expected to do likewise.

Any of these three likely candidates would endorse industrial mining from the start in contrast to the initial hesitancy of Correa and Moreno. In addition, the indigenous leadership has expressed interest in fielding a presidential candidate, and an indigenous candidate would be openly against mining. However, the candidate is unlikely to come close to making it to the run-off, as the group’s platform is based on the demands of indigenous peoples, who wish to remain apart from national society. Those who self-identify as indigenous make up just 7% of Ecuador’s population. ✖