As Tyneside holds its breath, what’s next for the takeover?

AFTER the sound and fury of last week’s tales, it has been much more low key on the Newcastle United takeover front this week.

First things first the deal is NOT off. But neither is an announcement imminent. So what next – and what are the stumbling blocks if Mike Ashley is going to sell?

SO WHERE DO WE STAND?

We’re in black and white purgatory. It’s not off, it’s not on – but Amanda Staveley is still interested and Mike Ashley still wants to sell. With time running out ahead of the January transfer window – the last period at which a takeover would have a material effect on this season – there is a need for substantial progress in the deal in the next fortnight or the whole takeover picture changes. These are crucial days and Tyneside holds its breath as it all plays out. What we do know is that the first round of discussions saw offers lodged earlier this month to Mike Ashley to acquire the football club – but there was disagreement over the exact value. The offers were structured with various clauses including one that would see Ashley potentially pay some money back if the club are relegated. This was a red line for the owner, who is agreeable to staged payments but wants to see a bigger profit. Further talks were expected and with Staveley still keen, a second offer was anticipated.

WHY HAS IT GONE QUIET?

When news of the first bid leaked it appears to have angered the Newcastle owner, who is taking a hands-on role in the negotiations. With a measure of scepticism at Newcastle about the intentions of financier Staveley, there was a feeling that it was a bid they knew he would knock back and by putting it in the open they were attempting to force his hand. So it might be the case that silence is golden if trust is to be re-established.

Newcastle is not a public company so there is no compulsion on Ashley to make statements or announcements – and neither do they have to update shareholders on negotiations, as happened when Staveley was looking to broker a deal for Liverpool.

So far no other potential investors have declared their hand publicly. But there were claims in the Telegraph this week of a second interested party talking to Newcastle.

WHAT WOULD HAVE BEEN THE POINT OF LEAKING IT IN THE FIRST PLACE?

That’s not clear but with January approaching time is of the essence. It may have been an attempt to speed up negotiations, with the initial offer understood to be lying on the table without a firm answer.

WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN NOW?

An agreement on price in principle would see Staveley – or anyone else – enter a period of exclusivity. From there they could tie up a deal relatively quickly. It’s not understood that is imminent.

WHAT IS EXCLUSIVITY?

Exclusivity is agreed between the buying party and the selling party after an agreement on price and gives a short period in which the company is effectively off the market in order for the buyer to complete the deal. This can be anything from a few weeks to a month or two. The reason exclusivity is important is because it allows a potential buyer to put in place the formalities of a deal without risk of being usurped by another party. It gives the buyer time to draw up legal documents, arrange the transfer of funds and draw up a business plan. All of this costs money and without an exclusivity deal, it is a risk to go through these steps. For the seller there is also risk: if it falls through, they have to start the whole sale process again.

WHAT ABOUT THE PREMIER LEAGUE CHECKS?

The fit and proper persons test must be passed with background checks on the people involved in the deal to make sure they have no relevant convictions. It’s understood the Premier League are aware of talks and negotiations – even if they haven’t been told a change of ownership is imminent yet.

In order to pass it there must be proof of funds, who is providing them and also a business plan to prove that the club will be financially viable for the next few years. The good news is that if it is relatively straightforward it can be done in days. The process can be kick-started before a sale is official – although that has not happened yet with Newcastle.

At Southampton it took months because the source of the funds changed. But other clubs have done it in a few days.

Any hope for the future should be tempered by how little we know about Staveley’s future plans for the club