Have we been duped by the IMF?

MAKING sense of headline statistics is a notoriously dodgy business. Sometimes, however, the message comes across with such strength that it would seem pointless to initiate a debate.

Like in respect to the recent IMF report. The UK is in the doghouse ... firmly ensconced in the relegation zone. Even ranking in terms of GDP growth below the likes of heavily sanctioned Russia!

Of course, it’s just a snapshot in a continuum. But it’s a pretty damned convincing snapshot. Almost convincing enough to make one forget how staggeringly poor the IMF has proved to be when making economic predictions. I can’t help wondering if one of those brilliantly constructed graphics which your newspaper publishes from time to time would shed light on the issue.

Consider GDP growth of the UK and Germany since 2010. The ups and downs are surprisingly similar ... our Covid hit was a bit worse than that of Germany, but our bounce-back was a bit better. By 2023, GDP growth over the period is almost identical ... who would believe it! Germany at the settled heart of the EU and our Brexit-troubled UK have been in lock-step for the past 13 years.

What about food price inflation? Surely we must be at the bottom of the league on that score. A few simple sums and a neatly presented graphic of average EU food price inflation against the equivalent measure for the UK doesn’t confirm this. Over the past few years our food price inflation has been slightly below the EU average!

I am beginning to wonder if we have all been duped – including me. In the real world, has Brexit really been an economic disaster?

JOHN HODGKINS, Seaton Sluice