The Chronicle (South Tyneside and Durham)
Rivals neck and neck in mayoral race – new poll
MCGUINNESS IN FRONT BUT INDEPENDENT DRISCOLL NOT FAR BEHIND
TWO political rivals vying to become the first North East mayor are neck and neck in the race, according to a new poll.
Polling released on Sunday by More In Common put Labour’s Kim Mcguinness narrowly ahead with 35% of the vote, just two points ahead of independent Jamie Driscoll.
If correct, the prediction would suggest Labour are at risk of a major embarrassment in an election they had expected to win fairly comfortably and offers Mr Driscoll a significant boost in his quest to upset his former party.
Having been elected as Labour’s North of Tyne mayor in 2019, Mr Driscoll quit the party last year after being blocked from standing against Ms Mcguinness in a selection contest to choose the candidate for the larger mayoralty job.
He has claimed to be “on course for a people powered political earthquake”, though Labour sources who spoke to The Chronicle have questioned the accuracy of the polling.
Voters will go to the polls this Thursday to elect a new North East mayor, following the agreement of a multibillion pound devolution deal that brings new funding and decision-making powers to the region.
The winner will head a new North East Mayoral Combined Authority, representing a population of around two million people across Northumberland, Tyne and Wear and County Durham.
The prevailing mood in the region’s political circles over recent weeks has been that Labour were in a relatively comfortable position in the North East, a traditionally red-dominated area. More attention has been given to the mayoral race in the Tees Valley, where Labour are hoping to unseat Tory mayor Ben Houchen.
But More In Common’s prediction puts Ms Mcguinness on 35%, Mr Driscoll on 33%, Reform UK’S Paul Donaghy in third on 14%, Conservative Guy Renner-thompson on 11%, with Andrew Gray of the Green Party and Liberal Democrat Aidan King both on 4%.
The research organisation said that Mr Driscoll was drawing more voters from smaller parties than Ms Mcguinness and attracting more people who had voted Tory in 2019.
According to More in Common’s polling, Driscoll voters said they were more likely to turn out on polling day than Mcguinness voters – which is a key factor in their expected result being so tight.
Among all respondents who took part in More In Common’s online panels, Ms Mcguinness had a lead of 38% to 27%.
But that narrowed to just a two-point advantage among those who ranked their likelihood to vote on May 2 as being nine or 10 out of 10.
Labour sources who questioned the poll suggested that this may have given too much weight to the influence of Mr Driscoll’s highly-engaged support base.
More In Common said the eventual result of the mayoral race “may be heavily influenced by parties’ get out the vote operation”.
The research also suggested that Mr Driscoll had a one-point lead over Ms Mcguinness in the North of Tyne area where he is currently mayor, but that the Labour candidate was six points ahead in the areas south of the river – Gateshead, South Tyneside, Sunderland and Durham.
Participants in the polling named reducing crime and anti-social behaviour as their top priority for the mayor, who will not hold any powers over policing.
Regenerating high streets and improving public transport were also ranked highly.