Can Funerals predict the Future?

However advanced human civilisation b ecomes, each and ever y human being r emains dependent upon the earth, and upon those who labour to produce our daily bread. The supply of food is perhaps more cer tain today than it has ever been, since it can be imported from around the world, and we are not at risk from a bad harvest in the way that our ancestors were. But the people of Israel were refugees from slaver y in Egypt, and were yet to receive a land of their own which they could cultivate. They owed their freedom to the Lord, and they looked ahead to the fulfilment of his promise that they would be settled in their own land, fer tile ground in a region of deserts, where they would prosper. The law which they are given requires them to give thanks for the providence of the Lord, by bringing an offering of the first fruits from the harvest, and by reciting as an act of worship the history of the Lord’s faithfulness towards Israel from generation to generation. These of ferings provide in tur n for those who have no food of their own, so that the blessings of God ar e shared with the whole community of Israel and all those who live within their land.

By teaching us to pray for our daily br ead, Jesus ensured that we acknowledge r egularly our dependence upon God for all that sustains the life which he has given us, indeed our ver y existence from moment to moment. And much more valuable even than bread is the word of God which comes to us as a gift freely given, in the ministr y of Jesus who died for our sins and was raisedby God from the dead for our salvation. This wor d is at work in us whenever we say that Jesus is Lor d, and it is this word which changes the disposition of our hear ts so that we believe in him. Faith in God comes about through the word of God, and not through any endeavour or merit or works of our own. It is thr ough God’s choice and his intervention that we are justified and saved. Faith is far more than intellectual assent to a set of ideas, or a preference for a par ticular religious narrative, for it is something we cannot manufacture for ourselves, but only receive as a gift of grace fr om God. Because it does not depend upon us in any way, faith is not bound or restricted by any human distinctions of nation or language or status, but is bestowed freely upon all who turn to God as the only author of salvation and Lord of all who call upon him.

Food is of course of singularimportance to us, for life depends upon access to our daily bread. God knows that we need it and makes it available in this world in great abundance, though we fail to ensure that it is shared fairly among the nations. If we are constantly mindful to give thanks to God for what we receive from him, then there is ever y chance that we will value br ead for what it is, manna which comes from heaven to sustain our mortal bodies on our journey through life. Like all other material commodities we can use it for good or ill, and it can even become a form of idolatr y, as we become content with the things of this world to the exclusion of God from our thoughts and affections. Material wealth can in turn bring power, and the delusion that we are now in control of our destiny, and the destiny of others. In our pride we even deceive ourselves that we no longer have any need of God, that we can do ever ything for ourselves, that no harm will befall us if we let go of him. By fasting Jesus demonstrates that we can contr ol our appetites, and by his use of scripture to answer the devil he shows us that the wor d of God alone is tr ue and tr ustworthy. “One does not live by bread alone” should never be far from our lips.

The Rev Stephen Trott

Peter Brierley One of the changes to the statistics collected by the Church of England when they were reviewed in a Committee under the Chairmanship of Rt Rev Nigel McCulloch at the end of the 1990s was the suggestion that the number of funerals taken by C of E clergy be regularly collected. This has been done and the numbers published every year since 2000, both for those undertaken in church and for those undertaken in crematoria.

In the light of the recent findings on the number of Christian adherents in Britain, this is a most useful series. The Census showed that Christians decreased by 3.8 million people in England between 2001 and 2011. It is reasonable to suppose that those who had a funeral in an Anglican church, or who had a Church of England priest conducting their service in a crematorium, might well have ticked the Christian box on the Census form had they been alive.

The Research and Statistics Dept have published figures showing there were in total 2.2 million church or crem funerals over the last decade. Few other denominations publish death statistics (no one else as far as I know publishes funeral statistics), but the Roman Catholics do give the number of deaths. Over the past decade there have been 430,000 Catholic deaths, and again one presumes most of these would have ticked “Christian” on the Census had they been able to.

These two denominations thus account for 2.6 million deaths. They formed between them 56 per cent of church membership in 2010 and if the number of deaths was extrapolated pro rata the total church deaths would be 4.6 million over the last 10 years. However, some denominations, like the Pentecostals, do not have so many elderly people so the real number is less than 4.6 million, perhaps 4.3 million.

At the same time one must not assume that no one is being converted, or coming back to the church, or newly joining the church because of Alpha and other teaching courses. The number of people joining the church is more difficult to measure but a total of 850,000 joining between 1998 and 2005 was estimated in the book Pulling Out of the Nosedive, published in 2006. That rate of joining would equate to a gain of 1.2 million people over a 10year period, but it may be that the joining rate between 2005 and 2011 was not quite as great as in earlier years, so that the total for the decade was, say, 1.0 million.

That would then lead to the following equation, in millions:

+ 1.0 who joined – 4.3 who died – 0.5 leaving for other reasons = – 3.8 decline.

If this equation is approximately true, it shows that the large bulk of the decline in the number of Christians between 2001 and 2011 is because of the number who died, rather than a dropping away for other reasons. The equation also explains the catastrophic forecast by the Church of England that their attendance will decline almost 60 per cent by 2030, since the number joining the C of E is so very much smaller than the large number who are dying. It also puts the church’s total evangelistic work into context, and highlights the enormous urgency to increase it, in fact, to quadruplicate or even quintuplicate it. What is “Christian”? In a very helpful article about the Census results, Linda Woodhead, Professor of Sociology of Religion at Lancaster University, suggests the simple range of answers to the Census question does not really indicate religious identity. She refers to recent publications that break down the “Christian” category into: * Moral Christians, who admire Christian ethics and aspire to live by them * Faithful Christians, who do orthodox things such as go to church and read the Bible * Cradle Christians, who tick the box because they were baptised and brought up Christian, and * Ethnic Christians who say they are Christian because they are British.

Furthermore, research has found that at least 12 per cent of Census “Christians” do not consider themselves religious, only 54 per cent believe in a personal God, and, according to latest attendance figures, 90 per cent do not attend church. So what? What are the implications of these statistics for the church in the immediate future? 1) The figures show how many deaths have occurred in the Christian community because of ageing and these will continue at a high level for a while as churchgoing generations of yesteryear die out. The proportion of churchgoers 65 and over is twice the proportion of this age group in the population at large. Numbers of members and attenders therefore will continue to drop for the foreseeable future. This has all kinds of implications for those producing Christian products, organising Christian events, as well as actual church attendance. 2) The numbers converting to Christianity are far too small to match the number of deaths. Evangelistic efforts therefore need to increase very greatly if the enormous drop in numbers is to be rectified. Such, however, is hardly the right motive! We have the Great Commission to take the Gospel to the whole world, and this, and the future destiny of the millions in Britain, must surely be our deepest concern. Sources: ONS Press Releases, and relevant figures in Religious Trends and UK Church

Statistics. © Dr Peter Brierley is a church consultant who

may be reached on peter@brierleyres.com