Could Argentina do it again?

From the Christian tradition a pretty good theological case can be made for choice rather than compulsion in matters of politics, belonging, community and governance.

Notwithstanding attempts by Argentina to get the Argentinian successor to Peter to demonstrate a partisan Papal preference for Argentinian sovereignty of the Falklands Islands, I think that Christian theology would tend to side with the right of the Falkland Islanders to determine their own fate.

In the sabre-rattling of the Argentinian government in recent years, allied to the questionable UN support for the South American country’s imperial ambitions over the Falklands there is one essential element that must not be overlooked – sovereignty. The people of the Falkland Islands have a right to determine their own future. As do other small countries and communities eyed by larger, unscrupulous and imperial neighbours.

There are now renewed fears of the apparent lack of adequate Royal Navy protection. It is right to feel some skepticism, however, over Argentinian intentions. Argentina is a country on the back foot and its noisiness over the Falklands is a symptom of its malaise. It is a country that has experienced so much misrule and mismanagement and therefore no longer has sufficient or credible armed forces to pose a threat to the Falkland Islands.

In 1982 they called the bluff of the British Government. They simply did not believe that Thatcher’s government would mount a taskforce to take back the Falkland Islands. Surely therefore, knowing what they know since 1982 that the British are determined, the Argentinians would not attempt the same thing twice?

There is now a scenario under which they would succeed in taking the Falkland Islands without any bloodshed. That is in the future scenario that a British Prime Minister is elected who could not be counted upon to defend the Islands. Let us say that it was a Labour leader who opposed the 1982 War, and still opposes it today. And they would be even more likely to put troops on the Falkland Islands if that potential British Prime Minister was already committed to the demilitarisation of the Falklands dispute and dialogue.

They might just then think it was worth calling Britain’s bluff again. It is therefore in Britain’s and the Falkland Island’s interests to have a credible leader of the Labour Party by the time of the next election.